The Welterweights and The Canadian King

The Welterweights and The Canadian King

Despite only defending his belt twice thus far, there is little doubt about who runs the Welterweight division. Georges St. Pierre has been dominate for a long time and aside from a flash KO from Matt Serra, has looked unstoppable since winning the title the first time, which has put this division at a crossroads at UFC 100. The only perceived threat will step up to challenge and the rest of the division will be trying to play catch-up to the elites. 

Georges St. Pierre – What is there to say about this guy that hasn’t already been said. He is one of the first of a new breed of fighters: superior athletes, well rounded, dangerous anywhere and everywhere a fight can go. He is one of, if not the best wrestlers in MMA and that is NOT his background.  When you look at the last few years of his career you see the only weakness he has shown was when he got caught by Serra and never recovered.  If anyone in the division can catch him like that (or worse) it is Thiago Alvez. For that, many people consider this the last stand against Canadian dominance in the division and the last potential hurdle (on the WW’s end) to the GSP vs Anderson Silva super fight. No matter what happens tonight, GSP is going to be around for a long time in the WW division. He has all the tools to be the best fighter in the world. All that remains to be seen is how long he can be this good.

Thiago Alvez – The best striker in the WW division is going to have the biggest fight of his career against GSP at UFC 100 and he is more than capable of wining that fight. As long as fighters in the WW division have to stand up with him at the beginning of each round Alvez is dangerous.  While I think he is clearly the number one contender in the division, I am not as convinced of his threat to GSP. He couldn’t finish Kos, he looked like he outweighed Hughes by 40 pounds, and a win over Karo is not what it use to be.  GSP is head and shoulders above those three fighters right now. Alvez is going to have to come in with a great gameplan and look better than ever.  Alvez is a huge WW so getting some of that size back after the weigh-ins will be key. As for the rest of the division he needs to work on making sure he can impose his will, which he has started to do. His takedown defense is good and he is competent on the ground when he gets there. The key for Alvez will be to maintain the ruthless finishing that he has been honing lately.  Win or lose, Alvez is only going to get better, meaning the chances of him headlining shows far into the future are great.

Jon Fitch – Jon Fitch is in a tough spot right now. If George St. Pierre wins, he has a long road back to a title shot, and rightfully so. GSP was not able to finish the tough as nails Fitch, but it never really looked like Fitch had a chance.  If Alvez is able to win, Fitch might have a bit of claim to another title shot but the Alvez that Fitch holds a win over might as well be a different person from the Alvez we have seen lately in the cage.  This all said, Fitch is probably better than the rest of the division.  His strong wrestling background make it difficult for opponent to stop him from dictating the pace and location of the fight and ever improving BJJ and standup games make him a well rounded threat and excellent defensive fighter.  Jon Fitch is a tough match-up for anyone in the division but didn’t seem ready for the likes of GSP, meaning Fitch could be in limbo for quite some time.

Paulo Thiago – No one knows much about Paulo Thiago right now. He beat Josh Koscheck but the shot seemed more coincidental than the result of a technical stand-up strategy.  As fans we were told that he has a great ground game but we didn’t really get to see it.  Fitch is hard to submit and is much more patient than Kos, making him a bigger test for the new comer.  We will know a lot more about Thiago after tonight but one way or another he is trying to make his way up the ladder in a very crowded division.

Mike Swick – A lot of pundits think Swick is the number three WW in the world, but I am yet to see an exceptional win from him. Swick has plenty of the tools and looks like he is going to get to prove it against another well rounded fighter in Martin Kampmann.  Swick’s size is going to serve him well in this division but to this point I haven’t seen him do one thing well enough to prove he is going to make a serious run at the title at WW.  His hand speed is impressive but he hasn’t really been able to utilize it on a top tier fighter and finish the fight. Swick is much more well suited to fight at WW than he was at MW so perhaps we are just yet to see his “big win,” but it is a win I will need to see before I am convinced he can hang with the cream of the crop here. Fortunatly for him, he trains with a great deal of the UFC WW divisions best fighters, meaning he will likely get his turn at a run before Fitch or Kos does and he doesn’t have to worry about either man derailing his career right now. 

Martin Kampmann – Martin Kampmann made a great run at 185 before getting steamrolled by Nate Marquardt, which should demonstrate how dangerous this man can be at 170. The odd thing about Kampmann is that he is shown surprisingly mediocre stand-up skills considering he is from a kickboxing pedigree. In this light he has demonstrated great proficiency in every other aspect of the game, but we have only seen him twice at WW, so perhaps we are yet to see him develop his KO power there.  His win over Condit was wildly entertaining, but he will surely be the underdog against Mike Swick, who is much more popular and has higher profile wins.  Kampmann is much like the rest of the division, well rounded but likely not ready to compete with the likes GSP.  The fight with Swick will actually prove a lot about both fighters and who is ready to take the next step at 170.

Josh Koscheck – The development of Kos since his time on TUF has been amazing. He has done all the right things to develop into a top notch mixed martial artist.  He isn’t afraid of anyone and will take fights on short notice, which might actually be his downfall right now. Frank Trigg is going to provide an interesting challenge for Koscheck and would be a great win on his resume.  I think it is important that Kos not forget what he is, a wrestler. Honing his stand-up skills, Kos has become more well rounded but it has to be used to supplement what he does best. If he becomes a boxer first his stand up might be too limited and predictable (think Sherk).  Koscheck is a good enough athlete to become an elite WW and its only a matter of time before he breaks through to the next level. 

Matt Hughes – I struggle with including Hughes in this breakdown because I am not sure how effective I think Hughes will be in the division from here on out.  Certainly it is difficult to discount the man given his career and his physical capabilities, but his limitations are becoming more clear too. He was suppose to steamroll past Matt Serra and instead he scratched out a decision. His stand up game is just too far behind given the culture of the division right now and his wrestling, while top notch, is not enough to get him past younger more athletic fighters. The simple fact is, Matt Hughes has lost a step and the division is becoming more well rounded.  He is going to be selective about the fights he takes (or he should) and the UFC is going to be selective about the fights they give him, maximizing his drawing power while trying not to make him look horrible by outmatching him too much.  I would be surprised if we saw Hughes get another title shot, but I won’t be surprised if we see him again. I have never been a fan of Matt Hughes but I have nothing but respect for his career and this is one blogger that is more than ok seeing Hughes go out on top. 

Matt Serra – Matt Serra put up one hell of a fight against Matt Hughes, a fight he was suppose to lose decisively.  A lot of people are going to follow Hughes and discredit championship that Serra won and I will admit; his win over GSP doesn’t rank him among the most dominant champions, but it shouldn’t be discounted either.  Matt Serra’s career has been somewhat storybook over the last few years, even if that storybook has not been going his way lately. The guy was on a show for former UFC rejects for crying out loud and he came back to fight GSP and Matt Hughes… and be competitive.  I think of Matt Serra in much the same way I think of Matt Hughes, he could ride off into the sunset at this point and I wouldn’t think any less of him.  It is not that I don’t want to see him fight againt, it is that I am not sure what he has left to prove given where he has been, what he has done, and what has been expected of him.  Matt Serra is a great teacher and a great coach and perhaps that will be his next step. For now though, I expect an extended break from Matt Serra. Maybe we will see him return and maybe we won’t but one thing is for sure, he had one of the biggest upsets in MMA history and no one will forget him anytime soon. 

There are a lot of fighters that deserve mentioning in this division: Matt Brown, Anthony Johnson, Carlos Condit, Marcus Davis, Dan Hardy, Dustin Hazelett (one of my favorite fighters in MMA today), and Chris Lytle to name just a few. While the division is top heavy, nothing lasts forever and the skill sets that are emerging in this division are going to create for some fascinating fights for the foreseeable future.

For now my division breakdowns are on hold. I started the MW breakdown but won’t finish it in time for the start of UFC 100 and instead of rushing it, I will just bring the final two breakdowns following UFC 100 as well UFC 100 thoughts.