A Division Held Hostage - Lightweight Breakdown

A Division Held Hostage – Lightweight Breakdown

 

 

The Lightweight division has been held hostage by BJ Penn for over a year now. The UFC champion and top ranked fighter hasn’t defended his title since May of 2008 and will finally defend it again 15 months later at UFC 101.  The rest of the division has been somewhat of a frenzy, fighters attempting positioning themselves for the next title shot and all that normal stuff. It is a division that could pick up quickly, especially if Florian can pull off an upset, and at the end of the day there are plenty of challenges for whoever emerges champion

 

B. J. Penn – Let me start by asserting BJ Penn as one of the best LW fighters in the history of MMA. He might just be the best.  Penn is as gifted as any man to step into a professional MMA cage or ring. That said, it is hard for me to really get behind the guy as a fan of the sport.  Penn doesn’t seem interested in fighting but once a year, meaning the hyper-entertaining and competitive LW division risks being somewhat slowed due to a lack of title fights. To be fair, Penn could care less who counts themselves amongst his fans, particularly me, but lets not pretend that the UFC and its fans wouldn’t like to see BJ Penn fight at least twice a year and stay in his own division. Penn/GSP II was too lucrative to pass up but there is nothing there now and there are plenty of fighters for Penn to defend against.  While Penn chased WW glory a few good things did happen in the division. One could argue that no one has deserved a title shot as much as Florian now does in years.  It has driven the upper echelon of fighters at 155 to fight amongst themselves and as a result, we have seen some fantastic fights.  Now it is getting crowded though and Penn needs to assert himself as the greatest LW of all time.  One might say that he has nothing to prove against the UFC LWs but I think guys like Diego Sanchez and Gray Maynard have something to say about that.  He is going to meet a stiff test at UFC 101 in KenFlo but if BJ Penn wants to he can be the champion of that division for a long long time to come.

 

Kenny Florian – If anyone is well rounded enough to give Penn serious problems it is Kenny Florian.  I was a little late to give Florian credit but it is hard to deny what he has done since his lose to Sherk. Florian has stepped up time and time again to beat everyone in his path. His stand up has caught up to his ground game and now he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the world at LW.  Not many people are going to give Florian much credit against Penn but I really consider this to be a serious threat to the Penn dynasty at LW.  As a fan I am assuming it would mean less time between title fights and a little more perceived parody in the division, which is a good thing.  Florian has already had a title shot; he has been at the “big show;” he has gone 25 minutes. Most of all, he has been scary efficient in the cage since that fight: 5 wins, 8 rounds, 1 decision (UD).  No one should be looking past KenFlo, least of all BJ Penn.

 

Diego Sanchez – Always somewhat overhyped since his win over Karo at WW, Diego dropped to where he probably should have been all along and made quick waves. After beating Joe Stevenson, Sanchez had a FOTY candidate with Clay Guida that I think taught us more about Guida than it did about Sanchez.  Diego is a beast and everyone knows it. He has a real chance to make a title push at 155 and if Kenny Florian can pull off the win at UFC 101, Sanchez would likely get the first title shot. He could still get the shot if Penn wins but its quite possible that he would have to fight once more before Penn was ready. Diego has proven he could have trouble with wrestlers, especially if those wrestlers were better at finishing. Fortunately, the other wrestlers in this division have never really shown a propensity for finishing fights. Diego needs to keep his head right, no lapses like we saw against Kos.  He could run this division but I still think he is going to need to get over a mental hump. Part of that was done in the fight of the year candidate with Guida. He needs to get beat up a little and survive. He needs to also beat people he isn’t suppose to. To me Diego’s confidence is inflated but it is primed to become more authentic than anyone could imagine.  I guess what I am saying is, you know that look he had when he was losing to Kos and there wasn’t much he could do about it… he needs to get in that spot again but push through it. Until that happens I just see him hitting walls against guys like Maynard, Sherk, Penn, or Kenflo right now.

 

Gray Maynard – I don’t feel like a lot of pundits are as high on this guy as I am but let me explain myself. Maynard is on a 5 fight winning streak which includes wins over Clementi, Edgar (who recently beat similar fighter and former champion Sherk), and Jim Miller (tough as nails).  Maynard has not really appeared to be in much trouble in any of those fights either.  This guy is looking more and more like Randy at 205 to me all the time. He has been taking 5 months between fights (consistently since his fight with Clementi), which tell me that his camp is looking out for his LONG term career, lest we forget the political reason’s Randy threatened to leave the UFC.  He is bigger and stronger than most of the division and his boxing is improving every single fight. Maynard is living up to the bully name by pushing his opponents around like rag dolls. The head scratching placement of his upcoming fight with Huerta below Guillard/Diaz on a fight night card is a pretty clear indication that Maynard has been chosen to punish Huerta for his decision to leave the UFC.  Can’t put Huerta in the main event, but you know the UFC is banking on Maynard bullying him around the cage. It’s dangerous because Huerta is dangerous but is anyone a safer bet right now? I think Gray Maynard will be fighting for a title in the next two years (three if Penn keeps the belt that long).  I like his chances of improving at every turn and would likely pick him against anyone in the division that is not listed above him. Sanchez vs Maynard was the fight I was REALLY hoping to come sooner or later and still think it will. It might just be a few years down the road and it might be for a title. 

 

Franky Edger – One of the biggest shockers of the year for me was seeing Franky Edger beat Sean Sherk, decisively.  I thought after what Maynard was able to do to Edger, Sherk would have taken notes and done much the same thing, but Edger came in and schooled the muscle shark for 3 rounds on the feet.  If you look at the guys Edgar has been in the cage with and beat you have to be impressed at a certain point.  He is becoming particularly well rounded. Edger could move down to 145 if he wanted but why would he? He has a strong wrestling background, is quick, and is improving his stand-up with each fight. I fear that size will be an issue for him eventually. With guys like Sanchez coming down from WW recently and Penn and Florian both spending time in higher weights, a bigger guy with a good game plan might be able to “bully” Edger around… get it… BULLY.  As of now, he is well on his way to a long career and an eventual title shot as long as he keeps his head on strait and keeps improving.  I am not against him moving down to the WEC as I think 145 is heating up and the move would provide some fascinating fights for him, but I am not holding my breath for him to step away from the bright lights and the bigger paydays anytime soon.

 

Sean Sherk – The Muscle Shark has let the critics get to him. Florian seemed to lead the roar of voices demanding that Sherk finish fights and then Penn was at the fore of the steroid criticism.  It seemed to me that all of this got to Sherk, made him change up his game. Unfortunately for Sherk, he picked the wrong way to change things up.  The super-wrestler has become a mediocre boxer and lost two of his last three for his trouble. He was clearly being booked as a gatekeeper but the lose to Edger might complicate things a bit for him. Everyone knows what Sherk’s forte is; he is a uber-strong wrestler with cardio for days. He needs to work on ways to finish fights on the ground. Work on transitions and submissions. I have trouble believing that anyone in the division could stay up if Sherk really wanted to take them down and it would be just as hard to get up if Sherk didn’t want you up.  If nothing else, stick to the game you are good at. I would rather see Sherk hold someone down and beat them up for 15 minutes than fight with one hand behind his back. That is not to say that Sherk doesn’t have good boxing, he does. However, he has become limited and predictable. The Muscle Shark needs to get back to his old ways in the cage or at least mix takedowns/ground-n-pound in with his boxing.  The road ahead is long for Sherk but he is so physically dominating that it would be hard to count him out against anyone in the UFC’s 155 pound class.

 

 

Roger Huerta – Huerta will not be in the UFC long, at least it seems very unlikely at this point, but he is involved in a pretty important match so his impact could be felt. Maynard could be derailed by the exiting fighter in his UFC swan song, which would be horrible for the immediate future of the Bully. Huerta is also likely going to be fighting for someone else (I tend to think Bellator here) and a win on Spike TV would do wonders in making him more marketable, but a lose takes a little of the edge off him. There is no quit in this kid and he could have an impact on MMA for a long time to come but since I am breaking down the UFC here, it seems like he is relegated to ruining this run for Maynard and pissing off Dana on his way out… or not.   Huerta is a fighter with a ton of heart and a big chip on his shoulder.  Wherever he goes he will provide entertaining fights, but for right now I think entertaining is the best word for him. He needs to hone a lot of those skills before he is ready to step in the cage with some of the top fighters in the world. 

 

Clay Guida – Talk about entertaining, this guy is your operational definition of entertaining. I am not sure it is possible to tire him out. I am not sure it is possible for him to have a boring fight. In reality, his motor and his hear are his biggest attributes and that isn’t a nice way of saying he isn’t that great. He has a solid wrestling background, an improving striking game, a good chin, and he avoids submissions really well. None of that compare to the pace he keeps in the cage though. I like Guida to be in the UFC for a long time and I think he would make it a tough night for ANYONE in the division, period.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up with a title shot one of these days. I think he is capable of stringing together the wins and his time may yet come. As of right now he needs to hone his skills and work on becoming better each time. It is hard to find a reason to complain about Guida but he still needs a big win before he is taken really seriously. Clay Guida has the tools and the intangibles, he just has to put them together affectively.

 

Joe Stevenson – Joe Stevenson is a really likable guy. I can’t put my finger on it but he just seems like a good dude. I think that’s why the fans bought into him so quickly. He put together a nice string of wins and used what he had very effectively for a long time, but the talent caught up and Stevenson had some rough times against the likes of Florian, Sanchez, and Penn.  Fortunately for him he was able to win a scrap against Diaz and look pretty impressive doing so.  Stevenson needs to learn from that win and continue to diversify. He was too predictable in his loses and had nothing to offer when fighters nullified his strengths. Stevenson is young and has a ton of potential. Now is the time to build and grow for him. He needs to be booked strategically so he should request fights that will force him into improving certain aspects of his game.  Since he is recognizable, he might not get much choice in who he fights as I can see him headlining Fight Night and TUF Finale cards for a while.  He has a lot of climbing to do and I could even see a fight with Guida in his future (not a fight I like for Stevenson unless he gets that guillotine).