The Big Breakdown in The UFC
I wrote this blog on the 5th but didn’t quite finish it. The 6th was my birthday and I barely touched my computer yesterday so its catch-up time. Double Time!
The HW division has been full of anything but slumbering giants in the UFC as of late. Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir are about to crown an undisputed UFC HW champion. Cain Velasquez and Shane Carwin are all but officially announced to meet at the end of the year. Big Nog and Randy Couture are finally going to have their dream match. Finally, Cro Cop is likely making his way BACK to the UFC (ohhhh the drama). In light of UFC 100 and somewhat a of a turning point in the year approaching, I thought I would break down the top contenders in each division a little bit to lay a base to move forward from. I will start with the big boys as they headline this centennial event.
Brock Lesnar – Of course I have to start with Brock Lesnar; he is the UFC HW champion, the most marketable man in the business (most likely) and one half of the main event at UFC 100. Life is good for Lesnar right now. I can still remember the comparisons and questions about who will be more successful between Brock Lesnar and Kimbo Slice when they both emerged onto the scene. Those questions were answered pretty quickly and now Brock is one win away from standing alone a top the UFC HW mountain. The rematch might as well have been booked by the WWE it has so much drama but a win will not get Mr. Lesnar out of the woods. Internet fans are plotting to chant “Fedor” during the post-fight interview if Lesnar wins. Personally, I don’t see it happening, but it’s the thought that counts. There are countless match-ups for the blue-chip champion if he avenges his only loss. Lesnar’s size and his power make him a dangerous match-up for anyone though. Carwin is really the only fighter that can match him in either department and the rest of the division will have to approach Brock much like a puzzle that they must use their technique to crack. It is still so hard to predict what Lesnar’s future holds because he hasn’t been tested against a multitude of styles and skill sets yet. One thing is for sure, the more he wins the more money there is to go around in the Zuffa head office.
Frank Mir – Frank Mir has got a lot to say about Brock Lesnar’s rise to success in the UFC. He tapped Lesnar once and there is no doubt that he wants to do it again, but there are a ton of questions about how Mir really matches up against Lesnar. He was man-handled in the first bout till he pulled out a flashly knee-bar off of a positioning mistake from Lesnar in his SECOND MMA fight. Lesnar has been a completely different fighter since then but there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Mir could snap a limb at any moment in this fight. If the old Frank Mir is back, the UFC HW division needs to be on alert because that Mir is no joke. Any man who becomes the first to finish Big Nog gets a lot of credit, even if Nog was fighting staph and didn’t look great. While he won’t set the HW division afire like Brock might if he wins, he will create quite a buzz as to who might be safe with him on the ground. Heavy handed strikers who can avoid take downs will be chomping at the bit to get their hands on him top flight BJJ big men will be studying his fights so as to make themselves valuable coaches for the wrestlers who are vying for a title shot. Let us not discount Mir as a viable HW champion with marketable appeal. He simultaneously would serve as cocky villain and Mr. MMA, the man who defended the sport from the professional wrestler. Let’s face the facts, Mir can talk trash with the best and could even create buzz for a fight with the Last Emperor himself. Mir vs. Lesnar might not actually teach us much about what Mir we are seeing but it will at least bolsters his star to a new generation of fans.
Shane Carwin – Quite possibly the strongest man in the division, despite popular opinion, Carwin has scary knockout power. Anyone who saw the Gonzaga knockout knows that. He brings a lot of the same raw attributes to the cage that Brock brings but without the star power. His last fight also taught us that Carwin is going to need to sharpen his striking defense if he is going to compete against the entirety of the division. Gonzaga almost put him down. I am not totally sure he would have survived the strikes Kongo dished out to Velasquez. I question his ability to compete with the top-flight fighters. There is something about Carwin that troubles me. He has stayed a raw talent longer than I expected and doesn’t show the development that I feel like I have seen from Brock. I can’t put my finger on it though. There is something in the way he presents himself and approaches his fights (in the cage) that indicates that he is relying more on his raw talent than a developing skill-set. I am not in his camp and I don’t know the man personally so its just one mans opinion. I might just be bighting on the hype-machine bait in my belief in Brock over Carwin but I will go on record saying that Shane Carwin is the biggest threat to Brock Lesnar on face value (I must also credit my friend Adam for talking me into that opinion which I now hold without reservation, for at least another week).
Cain Velasquez – Velasquez has been my choice for horse of the division since the beginning of the year. I believe this guy is the future of HW MMA in the UFC. Velasquez may have tore through Kongo but he looked scary mortal. Simultaneously he showed us he had great recovery (not a great chin) and holes in his stand-up that are more than just a little bit problematic for him. I don’t think I have ever seen a fighter win in such dominating fashion and demonstrate a larger hole in his game in one swoop. I still like him to be a champion some day but he needs to continue to develop those well rounded skills. Kongo is a world class striker, we all know that so he might have already survived the best in that department but if Carwin lands ONE strike solid, I am not sure Velasquez is going to make it past UFC 104. Mark my words, this is a future champion in this division, the question is now or later. I tend to think later. The top tier of fighters is filled with athletes that are either more technically sound and experienced or bigger and stronger, both could create big problems for the man with all the Mexican pride.
Randy Couture – Its hard to say the man is over the hill when he dominated (I will say it, he dominated) Brock Lesnar for the better part of 2 rounds before being KOed by someone 60 pounds his better. That fight purely demonstrated how dangerous the raw size and power can be in this division. He seems to come up big when people least expect it and I will stand by the contention that he would provide stiff competition for Fedor. If he gets past a relatively healthy Big Nog, it will be hard to refuse him another title shot down the road. Perhaps he would have to get past another Pride legend in Cro Cop to solidify his shot but I like that match-up for Randy at this point in time. He is one of the only guys covered here that has very few question marks around him. The only one is age; when will he run out of gas? That question almost seems ridiculous because the more we ask the more he performs. Randy Couture is a master technician and if you want to beat him, you better bring the best you have. If you don’t you are going to get beat up by 46 year old man.
Antonio Nogueira – The only other man on this list with one question mark is Big Nog. How long does he have? It isn’t as much of an age issue as it is a health issue. Nog has been a victim of the Pride system that has seemingly been less forgiving on the fighters body for those who spent an extensive amount of time embedded within it. The MMA world loves Nog as much as we love Randy though so one performance with a staph rumor surrounding it is easily forgiven. Nog is maybe simultaneously one of the most dangerous and most at risk fighters with the new breed of wrestler coming to the fore. He doesn’t have flashy submissions or amazing stand-up but he has heart for days and a chin like a cinder block. The guy just won’t die. He can and will expose your weaknesses. Nog is always dangerous. My only regret is that either he or Randy must lose in August.
Mirko Cro Cop – He might not be officially back yet but the word is that he and Dana White have been playing some contract chess and Mirko is winning. If Mirko gets this deal that is reportedly too good to pass up its check-mate for the Croatian. Unfortunately, I am not sure he has given anyone a real reason to be excited since he ran through Eddie Sanchez. I for one was not satisfied by the win over Al-Turk enough to say that Cro Cop is back to his murder machine ways. How will he fair against guys who can put him on his back and beat him up for 15-25 minutes. He has never shown us a nack for dealing effectively with that before. Can he really compete with the best of the best in the UFC? I hope and suspect he can put on better shows than we have seen from in the cage thus far. Mirko Cro Cop is in the very least good for one thing, attention. The MMA world is not going to forget what he did in Japan and any fight he gets will be a potential return to greatness. Anyone who has shown some dangerous holes in their stand-up game (I am looking at you wrestlers) should beware. This man will turn you into a highlight in his real, but he has a lot to prove in the UFC before I start drinking the Croatian Kool-Aid again.
Junior Dos Santos – How is this guy not fighting on main cards against top-flight opponents? Honestly? Why is he not fighting Gonzaga, Cro Cop, Herring, Kongo…? He tore Werdum a part and then ran through Lurch like they were not in his league. I think (hope) he is getting the slow build while the former six on this list work themselves out a bit. Dos Santos might be the only guy I like more than Velasquez in the long run. Any guy with that kind of stand-up, who trains with the Nogueira brothers is scary. If his Jitz is even “good” he could be the most dangerous fighter above 205 lbs. The only thing that keeps me a bit reserved is the fact that we haven’t seen him enough. Let’s hope he gets some more attention sooner rather than later and we find out what this guy is all about.
Cheick Kongo – Kongo might… MIGHT have the best stand up in the HW division and that alone makes him scary but he will never get his hands on that belt until he develops a serviceable ground game (scramble, take-down defense, etc.) or they ban takedowns in the UFC. I am not betting on the latter. There is no secret to Kongo. He is going to out-strike you and pray you don’t get the fight to the ground. It is that simple. Until he makes drastic improvements on the ground the UFC can almost decide his fate for him. If they want him to win they will put him against a striker. If they don’t they will put him against someone who can control where the fight takes place. I can see him being a test for Dos Santos down the road because his climb to the title got a lot longer after being thrown around like a rag doll by Velasquez.
Gabrial Gonzaga – For some reason I can’t bring myself to give up on this guy. All signs point to him hitting a wall when the competition reaches a certain level. Randy Couture beat him up, plain and simple. Werdum finished him decisively. Carwin knocked him cold. You could say it was a lucky shot but when you get KOed like that with a short punch, there is little room for debate. I think Gonzaga can still climb the mountain of the HW division but it’s a long road ahead. Cro Cop could get a rematch for rematch sake and everyone listed above him has louder voices in the title shot debate right now. Still, he is a strong HW with KO power and a very good ground game. He is a big threat to the wrestlers in the division because he is a bit more well rounded than some of the other BJJ specialists and probably stronger to boot. He needs to get his head strait and get a breakout win and soon. I would hate to see him cast off, although it would present him with some interesting opportunities outside the UFC.
This is certainly not an exhaustive list of HWs that matter in the UFC but it speaks to the depth of the division. I have said before that it might hit some dead ends in the not too distant future but the UFC deals well with those. With the winner of Fedor/Barnett the target of UFC tentacles, this could be the hottest division in MMA by the end of the year. For now, it is a division at the mercy of its wrestlers. Its future will be largely decided by what the new big three do or don’t do over the next few fights. Ultimately, it won’t really matter if they win or lose, one direction will be equal to the other and either will keep this division at the fore of UFC marketing. HWs will always sell tickets and will never be far from the main event. Will the super-wrestlers become the prototype of the new Mixed Martial Artist for big men or will our friends from abroad keep the division honest?
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