The Farsightedness of MMA and Our Desire for Mythos – Part I

The Farsightedness of MMA and Our Desire for Mythos – Part I

It might just be the most exciting time to be a mixed martial arts fan. With news buzzing about Affliction closing and the implications thereof involving Fedor, the UFC, and Strikeforce, significant news seems to be breaking every day.  The buzz has perpetuated a recent trend in MMA culture of farsightedness.  Visiting the MMA forums and news sights, one might not realize that two exceptional and significant cards are just over a week away.  Three of the best pound for pound fighters will meet significant and in some cases their most significant challenges in recent memory. Why is it relevant and what does it mean that abstract possibilities have taken the fore while fights in front of our face seem to sit at the periphery of our focus.

You could say that Fedor is the biggest and most important news in MMA because Fedor is the best fighter in the most important weight class in combat sports and you would be right.  However justified the excitement is, there is another significant bout approaching that’s lack of hype is somewhat troubling. I can understand the lack of fanfare for Penn/Florian and Bowels/Torres; those make sense to me.  However, Anderson Silva and Forrest Griffin have made their way into popular sports consciousness. Even friends of mine who are the most casual fans (by that I mean friends that will watch MMA with me only because I am not going out until it is done) know who Silva and Griffin are.  In fact, from my experience these are two of the only 4 fighters that get these casual fans excited about an event.  Not to mention this is a serious super-fight. This is a huge LHW and former champion going toe-to-toe with the MW king and almost consensus pound-for-pound king (although I still give the nod to Fedor).  Forrest has shocked the world before and, due to his size and recent resume, is likely the most dangerous fighter Anderson Silva has faced, at least on paper. Even if you want to ignore that Torres vs Bowels is the top two fighters in a division in a long overdue title fight and Penn is finally returning to defend his LW title, Silva vs Griffin represents a significant pivot point for two of the most important divisions in MMA today. This fight could potentially affect the future of GSP and the WW division as well.  I point this out not to hype up a fight that has not received what I see as adequate attention, but to demonstrate that the oversight of forthcoming events is significant and speaks to two relevant implications.

First, MMA’s loyal fanbase and the buzz that it creates for a fight have implications on the mainstream attention that a fight or a card will get. Of course we won’t know for sure how well a fight will draw until it is done but it is hard for me to imagine that Anderson Silva vs Forrest Griffin will do the kind of numbers that it should, given what we have seen from other cards.  It seemed to me that when Chuck Liddell was on top and Tito Ortiz was challenging him in their second fight, the MMA world was losing its mind for the fight and the numbers followed. Lets face it though, the folks in the forums and frequenters of ufc.com or sherdog.com cannot produce the kind of numbers that the UFC does for a PPV.  Drawing those kinds of numbers relies on a group of people who choose weather or not to watch the UFC from show to show based on the card that is being put up.  Lesnar vs Couture was suppose to be the biggest show in history for just this reason but the attention peaked to early and the event was sort of poorly placed among other cards that stole some of the buzz.  UFC 100 was perfectly placed, wasn’t interfered with by big out of ring/cage news.  My point is this, for an MMA event to garner significant attention and make its way into the mainstream consciousness; the loyal MMA fans have to be excited about it.  We may get tired of breaking down the same fight over and over and sometimes there is nothing to do but wait, but it is the buzz we create that catches the attention of those who may or may not pay attention to MMA.  If we get to farsighted, we don’t give the fights in front of us the attention they deserve or need.

Cont….

Fall of Affliction

What a horrible week to be without the internet. Time Warner decided that when they shut off our neighbors’ cable that they would go ahead and cut ours for no shits. Upon a request to fix their egregious error, they said, “we will do it next week.” No other service industry cares less about their customers or the happiness thereof than cable providers.

I have said with every Affliction show we must approach it as if it is the last Affliction show. This was never going to be a long-term project. It just didn’t add up. Unfortunately it was not Afflictions ambitious model of MMA promotion being fundamentally at odds with the US market for MMA that crushed them. Josh Barneett struck the final blow when he tested positive (yet again) for steroids and left Affliction without a true main event just days before the show.  The implications are numerous so I will try to the high notes quickly.

The Fedor Question: Where will Fedor go and what will he do? He still has one fight left with M-1 and the rumor mill is already churning tules of a fight sooner rather than later.  There is even a chance that Fedor vs Barneett could happen in August, likely at the M-1 show.  The UFC says Fedor is going to fight in the octagon but as long as that involves co-promotion with M-1, I don’t see it happening.  If Fedor wants the money that I think the UFC is ready to pay him and wants the biggest possible fights, he needs to get the fight done. All signs point to Fedor wanting to fight soon so a fight to close out his contract makes a lot of sense.  The UFC’s announcement Friday will likely not include significant information about Fedor but there is no doubt his name is going to come up.

Mousasi vs Babalu: Here we have the scrap of Affliction: Trilogy, the leftover in the fridge. I for one am really glad that this fight is not only getting moved to Strikeforce, but is also going to be for the Strikeforce LHW title.  This good fight just got better. Sure it replaces the Overheem/Werdum HW title fight, but it is a sure fire upgrade.  There are few really great match-ups waiting for MMA fans at 205 outside of the UFC, but this is one of them. I don’t think we have seen the last of Babalu under Zuffa contract, especially if he keeps winning.  

Vitor Belfort: It seems a foregone conclusion that The Phenom will be wearing his Affliction t-shirt walking down a UFC isle.  Dana wanted Vitor before Trilogy was called off and was confident enough to advertise the rejuvenated MW’s success despite the fact he was not under Zuffa contract yet.  If Vitor is half as good as he looks, I would guess he is going to make some serious waves in the UFC. In fact, I will go out on a limb right now and say that Vitor faces Dan Henderson upon his return and Rich Franklin will face a returning Tito Ortiz at UFC 103.  It is brash but I think it will happen. All I know is I will be very surprised if Vitor isn’t a downloadable character on UFC Undisputed within a year. 

Josh Barnnett: I don’t care to make any sort of speculation as to weather or not Barnnett actually juiced for this fight. Certainly one could make assumptions that he did because of his history, but at the end of the day the damage is done.  Affliction was going to die, one way or the other.  The only REAL downside to this is that we don’t get to see Barnnett vs Fedor, and we likely never will.  I was never convinced this fight was going to happen anyway. What I got from this whole ordeal was a complete ambivalence towards Barnnett. I quite simply don’t care about seeing him fight anymore.  Rumor has it he has a wrestling match in his not too distant future.  While I don’t suspect that this is the last we have seen from Barnnett in MMA, his future doesn’t look to bright. That is a lot of blemish on his baby face and I am not sure we are going to see him at the fore of HW MMA ever again.

So Affliction the promotion is dead and it is back to partnering up with the UFC.  It’s a good partnership and always has been.  I suspect the next few weeks will be filled with news of fighters and fights that make headlines but as always the spotlight will remain on Fedor.  The time is now the chance is here. I think even the UFC knows that Fedor vs Brock is good for business right now. Fedor beating Brock is 100 times better for MMA than anyone else beating him and Brock beating Fedor would be one of the biggest upsets in history. Someone’s star gets made. But don’t be fooled by the flashy lights around Fedor, some of the real wheelings and dealings will be happening with the likes of Mousasi, Vitor, Babalu, and Little Nog. Strikeforce and the UFC are bound to collect on this foreclosure so keep your eyes peeled folks.  

The Lesnar Topic

Its been over a week since UFC 100 and the antics that followed and I really didn’t think Lesnar’s post fight interview deserved too much attention. Attention is in fact what makes it significant after all. However, since fighters and analysts can’t seem to shake the implications of Brock being the most marketable and attention grabbing fighter in MMA today, I decided to throw my two cents in. 

Lets get a few things strait right off the bat. 

1)    Yes, there is a double standard at work here that Brock is on the short end of.

2)    Brock calling out the sponsor was the main reason Zuffa and Dana addressed this as such a serious issue.

3)    Its impossible to determine weather this is overall good or bad for the sport just yet.

I can address these briefly in order.

The double standard that allows guys like Cole Miller to stand over downed opponents and mock them and let Tito Ortiz dig graves after fights but forbade Brock Lesnar from getting in the face of Frank Mir and actively embracing the boos he received is circumstantial. It is not something that manifest itself from some cultural bias within MMA, nor was it brought to fruition by Dana White, Zuffa, or any other powers that be. It has everything to do with him being a former pro wrestler, the current HW champion, main eventing the UFC’s centennial event, and generally speaking a charismatic guy.  These sorts of double standards exist everywhere because with great power, fame, or success comes great responsibility.  Since Brock is the most marketable fighter in MMA (possibly in MMA history), everything he does will be under the microscope.  I would make the argument that if he had done this at UFC 101 instead of UFC 100 the backlash would not have been as strong. Had he not called out the sponsor, the backlash would not have been as strong.  If Frank Mir did the exact same thing, guess what… the backlash would not have been as strong. Brock winning at UFC 100 brought about the perfect storm for media attention to MMA and he acted up in the spotlight.  I only say this because of all the bellyaching and crying about double standards in MMA when everyone should have seen this coming, most notably BROCK!

You don’t bite the hand that feeds, at least not if you want to keep getting fed.  I can only imagine Dana White’s face moving from eye rolling and smirking to complete terror as Brock moved from flipping off fans and talking trash to bashing Bud Light. It was so funny to see the open Bud Light bottle in front of him at the presser afterwards. I have some serious issues with the hyper capitalist nature of MMA that I have spoke about in my other blog on myspace so it’s sort of sad in one regard. In another it’s amusing. Its not like Brock was calling them out for being the UFC’s pimp, he was just mad they wouldn’t plaster their logo on his ass.  However, no one is allowed to bark at big sponsors so no matter how big Brock gets in this sport… don’t expect him to keep this up.

The jury is still out on weather this is good or bad for MMA.  Attention wise it is short term good.  It could be long term bad if Brock proves to be a flash in the pan product of match making and loses with little fan fair.  As I will write about later, Fedor is the man that NEEDS to beat Lesnar to make this the best possible scenario.  The UFC has always done well turning individual success into company success so I suspect more of the same here. Even if Brock does lose, the UFC will make its money, make its name stronger, and Brock will be to blame for some sort of eventual disappointment, not the company.  Mainstream sports analysts question weather Brocks antics will turn off fans but its likely that every fan that tried MMA out for one night only and got turned off is canceled out and then some by the ones who didn’t try MMA out but heard the buzz about the show and might give ‘er a whirl down the road. 

I guess maybe my point is, this doesn’t really matter that much. It brought a good bit of attention, most of it negative in tone but likely positive in actual result. Brock is a money making machine for the UFC and lets face it… he is a serious fighter now. You can make arguments that his match-ups were favorable but he has three wins in a row against serious names in the business.  No one else in the division has three quality wins in a row like that so I guess he earned it. So here it is. We have our super villain champion. He is the golden goose because of this mess, now Zuffa has to use him right.  

Middle of The Pack - Middleweight Breakdown

Until recently I counted Middleweight of the second best division in the UFC. The organization’s centennial show and the circus that followed let MW slip and bumped HW above it in my book. That bump is partially based on what appears to be serious Fedor possibilities in the not too distant future. This is a stacked division still dominated by a world-beater, a world-beater that moves up to fight at 205 from time to time.  While everyone might be a step behind Silva right now that step is not as big as some make it out to be. 

Anderson Silva – Despite recent performances by Machida and, most notably, GSP Anderson Silva is still the second best fighter in the world in my book (behind Fedor). His chance to solidify this spot and heat up the debate again comes at UFC 101 against Forrest Griffin, likely the most daunting opponent Silva has met in the UFC.  His title reign is starting to look more impressive as Rich Franklin, Dan Henderson, and Nate Marquardt continue to have success.  Silva got a lot of flack after his last two fights but has he really been challenged since holding the belt? The answer is no.  I don’t fault him for those two fights and I don’t hold them against him.  His skills are quite simply more advanced than the rest of the division right now but he has plenty of challenges ahead, including potential super fights and/or rematches with top tier talent.  Even if Silva drops his next fight to the big LHW, he is still the king of the MWs and until someone gets the belt off his waist, that won’t change.

Dan Henderson – Dan Henderson proved a lot about the division when he dominated and KOed Michael Bisping. He showed that he is still one of the best and that Michael Bisping’s time is not now. It was also one of many fights that validates Anderson Silva’s current streak. Henderson is old school, tough as nails, will never be an easy fight.  Personally, I think he is still one win away from a title shot. Does he deserve it? Yes.  Unfortunately, I think another MW is going to be worthy of a rematch come late August.  As I have mentioned elsewhere and will expand upon later, if Marquardt does beat Maia, a battle between Henderson and Nate makes a lot sense to me both to see who deserves the rematch most and to free up some time for a GSP/Silva super-fight.  Henderson’s wrestling and stand-up will be too much for most of the division and a rematch with Silva would likely

Nate Marquardt – Nate Marquardt is one of my favorite MWs in the world, particularly since he gets such little attention. His success (even his “loss” to Leites) since his last title shot has gone a long way in validating Silva’s reign, as I continue to mention.  However, his next fight could change the course of the Middleweight division. I suspect the UFC has him two wins away from a title shot, requiring him to face Henderson if he beats Maia.  Marquardt is really an exceptional MW fighter. He is well rounded, big for the division, and can beat you in a multitude of ways. This is what I expect will be the difference between Marquardt and Maia.  Marquardt’s size, experience, and multiple dimensions are going to create problems for the one dimensional submission wizard, like they have everyone in the division.  Considering he comes from a camp known for its game planning and work ethic, I am becoming more and more convinced that Nate will take another step towards the title.  Even if he doesn’t, he looks to be a mainstay in the division for a long time to come.

Demian Maia – Speaking of the wizard and dangerous fighters, don’t let my confidence in Nate the Great be confused with a disbelief in the abilities of Demian Maia. I believe Maia is ridiculously talented and truly a joy to watch.  He and Dustin Hazelett are my favorite submission artists to watch, key word being “artists.”  If Maia can get past Marquardt I will seriously consider him a threat to Mr. Silva because he will have to demonstrate his ability to succeed against a top level, well-rounded MW. The fact alone that he works with the likes of Wandi. shows true promise for him to develop a solid stand-up game that will yield significant results.  Until then he is going to continue to take us all to submission school every time he gets in the cage. He is the chair of submissions and only teaches 800/900 level seminar courses so strap in and take notes folks, this is what BJJ looks like.

Yushin Okami – No one in the UFC deserves more sympathy than Okami, who has demonstrated time and time again that he belongs with the cream of the crop at MW. Most respectable rankings have him number two or three at 185 lbs.  However, it seems like every time he gets injured (which is more than your average bear) the UFC handles it like a loss.  Based on who he gets matched up with, he seems to move down the rankings. That said, I believe he could have beaten Rich Franklin. Losing that fight was his own fault, but it demonstrates the level of skill we are working with. Okami deserves a top level opponent that will put him right back in the hunt when he returns. It looks like he is going to get Chonan, which sort of works, but doesn’t lend itself to Okami getting the impressive win he needs. His stand up combined with his ability to control opponents on the ground make him a dangerous man to fight.  Lets just hope he can get back in the mix before the division becomes too flooded. 

Michael Bisping – Michael Bisping hit his wall in a big big way at UFC 100. He was completely outmatched by Henderson who seemed a little quicker, a lot stronger, and just overall better. There is nothing to be ashamed of in that loss though. Dan Henderson is a world class fighter and Michael Bisping’s professional MMA career is still young.  I expect it is quite likely that Bisping will still headline the next UFC show in the UK (at least co-main event).  His start got brightest right before the lights got knocked out, but there is nothing permanent about that.  The Count is a technically sound striker who is still developing. Now its time for the UFC to turn back on the careful booking for their UK poster-boy to maximize their cash flow and let him develop his skill set effectively.

Thales Leites – Deer in the Headlights Leites had nothing to offer Anderson Silva but that doesn’t mean he is a bad fighter. He has a win over Marquardt, even if many people don’t give him much credit for it. In the least it showed us how tough the kid is.  However, we then shortly learned he was not ready for the main event and he had a lot to learn. I hope he comes back better than before. This division has so much talent that it will act as a double-edged sword of sorts. In one regard it is going to make it difficult for him to climb the ladder again. On the other hand it will allow him ample opportunity and quality opponents to erase the title fight from people’s memory. 

Yoshihiro Akiyama – I don’t care what Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg say, Akiyama won the fight against Belcher. He didn’t look good doing it, but he won it.  Akiyama has big fight experience, a solid chin, and a somewhat unique skill set. His size is going to be a serious issue against guys like Henderson, Wandi, Anderson, and Marquardt. I sort of expect him to get thrown to the wolves soon. I doubt he will meet a marketable fighter like W. Silva or Bisping but he could find himself fighting a big talented figher like the loser of Marquardt and Maia.  Akiyama is going to be vital if Dana White is serious about returning to Japan though so don’t expect him to go anywhere anytime soon.

Wanderlei Silva – Its been a while since we have seen Wandi get a win and even longer since we have seen a full blown win streak, but I don’t expect Wandi to go anywhere anytime soon. It doesn’t take much for people to believe he is back and it doesn’t matter in the end anyway. We all still want to see Wandi fight. I think a solid argument can be made that Wandi beat Rich Franklin, but I am not against the decision rendered.  I would love to see him return against Michael Bisping but am not banking on that fight happening.   I am not sure we can hope for Wandi to get much better at this point.  He is what he is, an aggressive striker that can rip you apart quick but will give you chances to get your licks in. That is why he has been through the blood baths and slugfests he has.  Silva has earned the right to fight and I would love to see him return to the top.  A Silva vs Silva title fight would be HUGE, but I am not holding my breath. For me, it is a treat to see him in the cage so I won’t complain where he is at on the card, as long as I get to see it. 

Patrick Cote – I have never really believed in Cote as a title contender.  I didn’t think his win streak really should have bought him a title shot but it was the right time and the right place.  Cote will return and he will return close to the title. He needs to come back with more than just heart and a big punch.  A return bout against anyone above him here (and a few that won’t make this list) seems like bad match-up to me. Heck, I think the judges got the Almieda fight wrong… but that is just me.  Cote did seem to handle the spot light better than Leites did, so in that regard he gets some points.  I sort of expect Cote to fall back to the middle of the pack upon his return.

The Rest – This division is so stacked that I feel like a few people deserve a quick mention before I sign off on it.  Denis Kang has a lot of making up to do and I am starting to question weather he will get it done. Richardo Almieda and Kendall Grove are going to have a pretty important fight that will implicate the middle of the division pretty heavily, both guys have questionable loses on their record but tons of potential.  I believe in Goran Reljic and have since his UFC debut.  I hope he returns soon and hope he gets a quality opponent. I pick him to be a future contender if not champion.  One day either Drew McFedries or Wilson Goveia will get their shit together and live up to their potential. There is just something about both these guys that tells me we haven’t seen what they can really bring to the table.  Rousimar Palhares is a scary dude, like a little ball of potential.  Dan Miller looks destined to be a party ruiner for his UFC career. I love watching him fight but I am not sure I see him reaching the top of the division. Rosholt vs Leban will tell us a lot about where each of these guys are both physically and mentally in the division so despite the fact I am not sure it deserves a main card spot, I am excited about it. One of them is going to come out of that fight in bad shape professionally.  Finally, rest in peace Evan Tanner, one of my favorite fighters ever. Everyone should take some notes on his career. He was a true and rare complete role-model in MMA and he will be missed.

UFC 100 Thoughts

UFC 100 was a really fun show, plain and simple. On a scale of 1-10 I give it an awesome.  Joe Silva deserves a bonus for putting these matches together because outside of a FOTY candidate or a legendary slug fest (either of which can rarely be predicted), this is as good as it gets in MMA cards.

I have yet to see the preliminary bouts but I can make a few comments based on the results alone. Coleman’s win was a bit shocking to me and really raises questions about Stephan Bonnar’s place in MMA right now.  I like the guy and he has shown a ton of heart in the past but I really expected him to get a nice rebound here and he didn’t.  Jim Miller keeps holding it down for the Miller brothers. I really like those guys.  Jon Jones is a star waiting to happen, no telling how far he can go. C. B. Dollway continues to prove over-hyped. Look, maybe the guy has a ton of potential and all that but he hasn’t lived up to it and its somewhat irritating when the UFC pushes TUF guys like this. I am just glad that fight wasn’t on the main card of something… no offense. 

The pay per view portion of this card had a lot of excitement and some world class MMA. Akyama won that fight, despite what the announcers say. He was more technically sound on the feet, pushed the pace, and got enough nice solid takedowns for me to give him the fight (29-28).  He did not do enough however to warrant consideration for a title shot. He is going to need another fight or two before that is even a relevant question.  This brings us to the presumed KO of the night of Henderson damn near killing Bisping with two shots that could have knocked him into UFC 109.  Henderson looked to just totally outmatch Bisping and it all came down to two things.

1)    Bisping shouldn’t have been circling left

2)    Bisping seemed to genuinely not grasp the durability of the Henderson’s chin

This leads to what I think will be a bit of a waiting game at 185. I will be surprised if they give Henderson a shot outright for this. Waiting to see what happens with Marquardt and Maia makes a lot more sense to me. If Maia wins, you can throw a new challenger at Silva. If Marquardt wins, it looks like you have two guys equally qualified for a rematch. Given how invincible GSP looked tonight and how lackluster the upcoming challengers are at 170, a superfight at the end of the year would be crafted of perfect timing, enough to let GSP gage the weight change and enough to let Henderson and Marquardt compete for a title shot. Speaking of GSP… wow. I said before that Thiago Alvez was the most dangerous challenger to GSP but not QUITE yet.  Alvez is likely a future champion but I honestly think Fitch put up a better fight against the Canadian super champion and he showed his own improvements tonight as well. GSP is just a cut above at WW, easily more dominate than anyone else but that seems to be more a product of competition within a division than pound for pound greatness. That is, MW and HW are more competitive divisions, but GSP is not necessarily better than Silva or Fedor.  Outside of a lucky shot or a fluke injury, I really don’t see GSP losing to anyone at 170 until Fitch or Alvez amp there game up a few more levels and I think that is at least a two years away from being a reasonable expectation. Finally, what can you say about what Brock Lesnar did to Frank Mir tonight. That was flat out ugly.  Mir looked like he was hit with a meat tenderizer for 7 minutes. Brock Lesnar had a perfect game plan and went in there and mauled Mir. That might actually be the first ever official public mauling, but it was PPV so it was ok.  As I have chimed before, the other big wrestlers are the biggest threat to Lesnar and it is very likely that either Carwin or Velasquez will get the next shot I think Carwin has enough power and solid enough stand up to be really dangerous and Velasquez is well rounded enough keep Brock guessing, but with Cro Cop vs Dos Santos set for Sept., they may book the winner of that against Brock at the end of the year. Either way, Brock looked really impressive and really patient tonight and tonight is Brocks night. I am not sure I would bet on anyone against Brock Lesnar in the mood he was in this evening.  All of this is of course assuming that the UFC doesn’t pull a huge coup and sign either Fedor or Barnett after their fight in August. Brock is going to get better with every fight (and his trainers need to work his stand-up… now) so there is no telling how dangerous Brock Lesnar could be next time around.

Here is to a great night at UFC 100. It lived up to the hype so good on the UFC and good on the fighters who went out there to put on a show tonight. 

The Welterweights and The Canadian King

The Welterweights and The Canadian King

Despite only defending his belt twice thus far, there is little doubt about who runs the Welterweight division. Georges St. Pierre has been dominate for a long time and aside from a flash KO from Matt Serra, has looked unstoppable since winning the title the first time, which has put this division at a crossroads at UFC 100. The only perceived threat will step up to challenge and the rest of the division will be trying to play catch-up to the elites. 

Georges St. Pierre – What is there to say about this guy that hasn’t already been said. He is one of the first of a new breed of fighters: superior athletes, well rounded, dangerous anywhere and everywhere a fight can go. He is one of, if not the best wrestlers in MMA and that is NOT his background.  When you look at the last few years of his career you see the only weakness he has shown was when he got caught by Serra and never recovered.  If anyone in the division can catch him like that (or worse) it is Thiago Alvez. For that, many people consider this the last stand against Canadian dominance in the division and the last potential hurdle (on the WW’s end) to the GSP vs Anderson Silva super fight. No matter what happens tonight, GSP is going to be around for a long time in the WW division. He has all the tools to be the best fighter in the world. All that remains to be seen is how long he can be this good.

Thiago Alvez – The best striker in the WW division is going to have the biggest fight of his career against GSP at UFC 100 and he is more than capable of wining that fight. As long as fighters in the WW division have to stand up with him at the beginning of each round Alvez is dangerous.  While I think he is clearly the number one contender in the division, I am not as convinced of his threat to GSP. He couldn’t finish Kos, he looked like he outweighed Hughes by 40 pounds, and a win over Karo is not what it use to be.  GSP is head and shoulders above those three fighters right now. Alvez is going to have to come in with a great gameplan and look better than ever.  Alvez is a huge WW so getting some of that size back after the weigh-ins will be key. As for the rest of the division he needs to work on making sure he can impose his will, which he has started to do. His takedown defense is good and he is competent on the ground when he gets there. The key for Alvez will be to maintain the ruthless finishing that he has been honing lately.  Win or lose, Alvez is only going to get better, meaning the chances of him headlining shows far into the future are great.

Jon Fitch – Jon Fitch is in a tough spot right now. If George St. Pierre wins, he has a long road back to a title shot, and rightfully so. GSP was not able to finish the tough as nails Fitch, but it never really looked like Fitch had a chance.  If Alvez is able to win, Fitch might have a bit of claim to another title shot but the Alvez that Fitch holds a win over might as well be a different person from the Alvez we have seen lately in the cage.  This all said, Fitch is probably better than the rest of the division.  His strong wrestling background make it difficult for opponent to stop him from dictating the pace and location of the fight and ever improving BJJ and standup games make him a well rounded threat and excellent defensive fighter.  Jon Fitch is a tough match-up for anyone in the division but didn’t seem ready for the likes of GSP, meaning Fitch could be in limbo for quite some time.

Paulo Thiago – No one knows much about Paulo Thiago right now. He beat Josh Koscheck but the shot seemed more coincidental than the result of a technical stand-up strategy.  As fans we were told that he has a great ground game but we didn’t really get to see it.  Fitch is hard to submit and is much more patient than Kos, making him a bigger test for the new comer.  We will know a lot more about Thiago after tonight but one way or another he is trying to make his way up the ladder in a very crowded division.

Mike Swick – A lot of pundits think Swick is the number three WW in the world, but I am yet to see an exceptional win from him. Swick has plenty of the tools and looks like he is going to get to prove it against another well rounded fighter in Martin Kampmann.  Swick’s size is going to serve him well in this division but to this point I haven’t seen him do one thing well enough to prove he is going to make a serious run at the title at WW.  His hand speed is impressive but he hasn’t really been able to utilize it on a top tier fighter and finish the fight. Swick is much more well suited to fight at WW than he was at MW so perhaps we are just yet to see his “big win,” but it is a win I will need to see before I am convinced he can hang with the cream of the crop here. Fortunatly for him, he trains with a great deal of the UFC WW divisions best fighters, meaning he will likely get his turn at a run before Fitch or Kos does and he doesn’t have to worry about either man derailing his career right now. 

Martin Kampmann – Martin Kampmann made a great run at 185 before getting steamrolled by Nate Marquardt, which should demonstrate how dangerous this man can be at 170. The odd thing about Kampmann is that he is shown surprisingly mediocre stand-up skills considering he is from a kickboxing pedigree. In this light he has demonstrated great proficiency in every other aspect of the game, but we have only seen him twice at WW, so perhaps we are yet to see him develop his KO power there.  His win over Condit was wildly entertaining, but he will surely be the underdog against Mike Swick, who is much more popular and has higher profile wins.  Kampmann is much like the rest of the division, well rounded but likely not ready to compete with the likes GSP.  The fight with Swick will actually prove a lot about both fighters and who is ready to take the next step at 170.

Josh Koscheck – The development of Kos since his time on TUF has been amazing. He has done all the right things to develop into a top notch mixed martial artist.  He isn’t afraid of anyone and will take fights on short notice, which might actually be his downfall right now. Frank Trigg is going to provide an interesting challenge for Koscheck and would be a great win on his resume.  I think it is important that Kos not forget what he is, a wrestler. Honing his stand-up skills, Kos has become more well rounded but it has to be used to supplement what he does best. If he becomes a boxer first his stand up might be too limited and predictable (think Sherk).  Koscheck is a good enough athlete to become an elite WW and its only a matter of time before he breaks through to the next level. 

Matt Hughes – I struggle with including Hughes in this breakdown because I am not sure how effective I think Hughes will be in the division from here on out.  Certainly it is difficult to discount the man given his career and his physical capabilities, but his limitations are becoming more clear too. He was suppose to steamroll past Matt Serra and instead he scratched out a decision. His stand up game is just too far behind given the culture of the division right now and his wrestling, while top notch, is not enough to get him past younger more athletic fighters. The simple fact is, Matt Hughes has lost a step and the division is becoming more well rounded.  He is going to be selective about the fights he takes (or he should) and the UFC is going to be selective about the fights they give him, maximizing his drawing power while trying not to make him look horrible by outmatching him too much.  I would be surprised if we saw Hughes get another title shot, but I won’t be surprised if we see him again. I have never been a fan of Matt Hughes but I have nothing but respect for his career and this is one blogger that is more than ok seeing Hughes go out on top. 

Matt Serra – Matt Serra put up one hell of a fight against Matt Hughes, a fight he was suppose to lose decisively.  A lot of people are going to follow Hughes and discredit championship that Serra won and I will admit; his win over GSP doesn’t rank him among the most dominant champions, but it shouldn’t be discounted either.  Matt Serra’s career has been somewhat storybook over the last few years, even if that storybook has not been going his way lately. The guy was on a show for former UFC rejects for crying out loud and he came back to fight GSP and Matt Hughes… and be competitive.  I think of Matt Serra in much the same way I think of Matt Hughes, he could ride off into the sunset at this point and I wouldn’t think any less of him.  It is not that I don’t want to see him fight againt, it is that I am not sure what he has left to prove given where he has been, what he has done, and what has been expected of him.  Matt Serra is a great teacher and a great coach and perhaps that will be his next step. For now though, I expect an extended break from Matt Serra. Maybe we will see him return and maybe we won’t but one thing is for sure, he had one of the biggest upsets in MMA history and no one will forget him anytime soon. 

There are a lot of fighters that deserve mentioning in this division: Matt Brown, Anthony Johnson, Carlos Condit, Marcus Davis, Dan Hardy, Dustin Hazelett (one of my favorite fighters in MMA today), and Chris Lytle to name just a few. While the division is top heavy, nothing lasts forever and the skill sets that are emerging in this division are going to create for some fascinating fights for the foreseeable future.

For now my division breakdowns are on hold. I started the MW breakdown but won’t finish it in time for the start of UFC 100 and instead of rushing it, I will just bring the final two breakdowns following UFC 100 as well UFC 100 thoughts.  

A Division Held Hostage - Lightweight Breakdown

A Division Held Hostage – Lightweight Breakdown

 

 

The Lightweight division has been held hostage by BJ Penn for over a year now. The UFC champion and top ranked fighter hasn’t defended his title since May of 2008 and will finally defend it again 15 months later at UFC 101.  The rest of the division has been somewhat of a frenzy, fighters attempting positioning themselves for the next title shot and all that normal stuff. It is a division that could pick up quickly, especially if Florian can pull off an upset, and at the end of the day there are plenty of challenges for whoever emerges champion

 

B. J. Penn – Let me start by asserting BJ Penn as one of the best LW fighters in the history of MMA. He might just be the best.  Penn is as gifted as any man to step into a professional MMA cage or ring. That said, it is hard for me to really get behind the guy as a fan of the sport.  Penn doesn’t seem interested in fighting but once a year, meaning the hyper-entertaining and competitive LW division risks being somewhat slowed due to a lack of title fights. To be fair, Penn could care less who counts themselves amongst his fans, particularly me, but lets not pretend that the UFC and its fans wouldn’t like to see BJ Penn fight at least twice a year and stay in his own division. Penn/GSP II was too lucrative to pass up but there is nothing there now and there are plenty of fighters for Penn to defend against.  While Penn chased WW glory a few good things did happen in the division. One could argue that no one has deserved a title shot as much as Florian now does in years.  It has driven the upper echelon of fighters at 155 to fight amongst themselves and as a result, we have seen some fantastic fights.  Now it is getting crowded though and Penn needs to assert himself as the greatest LW of all time.  One might say that he has nothing to prove against the UFC LWs but I think guys like Diego Sanchez and Gray Maynard have something to say about that.  He is going to meet a stiff test at UFC 101 in KenFlo but if BJ Penn wants to he can be the champion of that division for a long long time to come.

 

Kenny Florian – If anyone is well rounded enough to give Penn serious problems it is Kenny Florian.  I was a little late to give Florian credit but it is hard to deny what he has done since his lose to Sherk. Florian has stepped up time and time again to beat everyone in his path. His stand up has caught up to his ground game and now he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the world at LW.  Not many people are going to give Florian much credit against Penn but I really consider this to be a serious threat to the Penn dynasty at LW.  As a fan I am assuming it would mean less time between title fights and a little more perceived parody in the division, which is a good thing.  Florian has already had a title shot; he has been at the “big show;” he has gone 25 minutes. Most of all, he has been scary efficient in the cage since that fight: 5 wins, 8 rounds, 1 decision (UD).  No one should be looking past KenFlo, least of all BJ Penn.

 

Diego Sanchez – Always somewhat overhyped since his win over Karo at WW, Diego dropped to where he probably should have been all along and made quick waves. After beating Joe Stevenson, Sanchez had a FOTY candidate with Clay Guida that I think taught us more about Guida than it did about Sanchez.  Diego is a beast and everyone knows it. He has a real chance to make a title push at 155 and if Kenny Florian can pull off the win at UFC 101, Sanchez would likely get the first title shot. He could still get the shot if Penn wins but its quite possible that he would have to fight once more before Penn was ready. Diego has proven he could have trouble with wrestlers, especially if those wrestlers were better at finishing. Fortunately, the other wrestlers in this division have never really shown a propensity for finishing fights. Diego needs to keep his head right, no lapses like we saw against Kos.  He could run this division but I still think he is going to need to get over a mental hump. Part of that was done in the fight of the year candidate with Guida. He needs to get beat up a little and survive. He needs to also beat people he isn’t suppose to. To me Diego’s confidence is inflated but it is primed to become more authentic than anyone could imagine.  I guess what I am saying is, you know that look he had when he was losing to Kos and there wasn’t much he could do about it… he needs to get in that spot again but push through it. Until that happens I just see him hitting walls against guys like Maynard, Sherk, Penn, or Kenflo right now.

 

Gray Maynard – I don’t feel like a lot of pundits are as high on this guy as I am but let me explain myself. Maynard is on a 5 fight winning streak which includes wins over Clementi, Edgar (who recently beat similar fighter and former champion Sherk), and Jim Miller (tough as nails).  Maynard has not really appeared to be in much trouble in any of those fights either.  This guy is looking more and more like Randy at 205 to me all the time. He has been taking 5 months between fights (consistently since his fight with Clementi), which tell me that his camp is looking out for his LONG term career, lest we forget the political reason’s Randy threatened to leave the UFC.  He is bigger and stronger than most of the division and his boxing is improving every single fight. Maynard is living up to the bully name by pushing his opponents around like rag dolls. The head scratching placement of his upcoming fight with Huerta below Guillard/Diaz on a fight night card is a pretty clear indication that Maynard has been chosen to punish Huerta for his decision to leave the UFC.  Can’t put Huerta in the main event, but you know the UFC is banking on Maynard bullying him around the cage. It’s dangerous because Huerta is dangerous but is anyone a safer bet right now? I think Gray Maynard will be fighting for a title in the next two years (three if Penn keeps the belt that long).  I like his chances of improving at every turn and would likely pick him against anyone in the division that is not listed above him. Sanchez vs Maynard was the fight I was REALLY hoping to come sooner or later and still think it will. It might just be a few years down the road and it might be for a title. 

 

Franky Edger – One of the biggest shockers of the year for me was seeing Franky Edger beat Sean Sherk, decisively.  I thought after what Maynard was able to do to Edger, Sherk would have taken notes and done much the same thing, but Edger came in and schooled the muscle shark for 3 rounds on the feet.  If you look at the guys Edgar has been in the cage with and beat you have to be impressed at a certain point.  He is becoming particularly well rounded. Edger could move down to 145 if he wanted but why would he? He has a strong wrestling background, is quick, and is improving his stand-up with each fight. I fear that size will be an issue for him eventually. With guys like Sanchez coming down from WW recently and Penn and Florian both spending time in higher weights, a bigger guy with a good game plan might be able to “bully” Edger around… get it… BULLY.  As of now, he is well on his way to a long career and an eventual title shot as long as he keeps his head on strait and keeps improving.  I am not against him moving down to the WEC as I think 145 is heating up and the move would provide some fascinating fights for him, but I am not holding my breath for him to step away from the bright lights and the bigger paydays anytime soon.

 

Sean Sherk – The Muscle Shark has let the critics get to him. Florian seemed to lead the roar of voices demanding that Sherk finish fights and then Penn was at the fore of the steroid criticism.  It seemed to me that all of this got to Sherk, made him change up his game. Unfortunately for Sherk, he picked the wrong way to change things up.  The super-wrestler has become a mediocre boxer and lost two of his last three for his trouble. He was clearly being booked as a gatekeeper but the lose to Edger might complicate things a bit for him. Everyone knows what Sherk’s forte is; he is a uber-strong wrestler with cardio for days. He needs to work on ways to finish fights on the ground. Work on transitions and submissions. I have trouble believing that anyone in the division could stay up if Sherk really wanted to take them down and it would be just as hard to get up if Sherk didn’t want you up.  If nothing else, stick to the game you are good at. I would rather see Sherk hold someone down and beat them up for 15 minutes than fight with one hand behind his back. That is not to say that Sherk doesn’t have good boxing, he does. However, he has become limited and predictable. The Muscle Shark needs to get back to his old ways in the cage or at least mix takedowns/ground-n-pound in with his boxing.  The road ahead is long for Sherk but he is so physically dominating that it would be hard to count him out against anyone in the UFC’s 155 pound class.

 

 

Roger Huerta – Huerta will not be in the UFC long, at least it seems very unlikely at this point, but he is involved in a pretty important match so his impact could be felt. Maynard could be derailed by the exiting fighter in his UFC swan song, which would be horrible for the immediate future of the Bully. Huerta is also likely going to be fighting for someone else (I tend to think Bellator here) and a win on Spike TV would do wonders in making him more marketable, but a lose takes a little of the edge off him. There is no quit in this kid and he could have an impact on MMA for a long time to come but since I am breaking down the UFC here, it seems like he is relegated to ruining this run for Maynard and pissing off Dana on his way out… or not.   Huerta is a fighter with a ton of heart and a big chip on his shoulder.  Wherever he goes he will provide entertaining fights, but for right now I think entertaining is the best word for him. He needs to hone a lot of those skills before he is ready to step in the cage with some of the top fighters in the world. 

 

Clay Guida – Talk about entertaining, this guy is your operational definition of entertaining. I am not sure it is possible to tire him out. I am not sure it is possible for him to have a boring fight. In reality, his motor and his hear are his biggest attributes and that isn’t a nice way of saying he isn’t that great. He has a solid wrestling background, an improving striking game, a good chin, and he avoids submissions really well. None of that compare to the pace he keeps in the cage though. I like Guida to be in the UFC for a long time and I think he would make it a tough night for ANYONE in the division, period.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up with a title shot one of these days. I think he is capable of stringing together the wins and his time may yet come. As of right now he needs to hone his skills and work on becoming better each time. It is hard to find a reason to complain about Guida but he still needs a big win before he is taken really seriously. Clay Guida has the tools and the intangibles, he just has to put them together affectively.

 

Joe Stevenson – Joe Stevenson is a really likable guy. I can’t put my finger on it but he just seems like a good dude. I think that’s why the fans bought into him so quickly. He put together a nice string of wins and used what he had very effectively for a long time, but the talent caught up and Stevenson had some rough times against the likes of Florian, Sanchez, and Penn.  Fortunately for him he was able to win a scrap against Diaz and look pretty impressive doing so.  Stevenson needs to learn from that win and continue to diversify. He was too predictable in his loses and had nothing to offer when fighters nullified his strengths. Stevenson is young and has a ton of potential. Now is the time to build and grow for him. He needs to be booked strategically so he should request fights that will force him into improving certain aspects of his game.  Since he is recognizable, he might not get much choice in who he fights as I can see him headlining Fight Night and TUF Finale cards for a while.  He has a lot of climbing to do and I could even see a fight with Guida in his future (not a fight I like for Stevenson unless he gets that guillotine).  

HW Breakdown

The Big Breakdown in The UFC

I wrote this blog on the 5^th but didn’t quite finish it. The 6^th was my birthday and I barely touched my computer yesterday so its catch-up time.  Double Time!

 

The HW division has been full of anything but slumbering giants in the UFC as of late.  Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir are about to crown an undisputed UFC HW champion. Cain Velasquez and Shane Carwin are all but officially announced to meet at the end of the year.  Big Nog and Randy Couture are finally going to have their dream match. Finally, Cro Cop is likely making his way BACK to the UFC (ohhhh the drama). In light of UFC 100 and somewhat a of a turning point in the year approaching, I thought I would break down the top contenders in each division a little bit to lay a base to move forward from. I will start with the big boys as they headline this centennial event.

 

 

Brock Lesnar – Of course I have to start with Brock Lesnar; he is the UFC HW champion, the most marketable man in the business (most likely) and one half of the main event at UFC 100.  Life is good for Lesnar right now. I can still remember the comparisons and questions about who will be more successful between Brock Lesnar and Kimbo Slice when they both emerged onto the scene. Those questions were answered pretty quickly and now Brock is one win away from standing alone a top the UFC HW mountain.  The rematch might as well have been booked by the WWE it has so much drama but a win will not get Mr. Lesnar out of the woods.  Internet fans are plotting to chant “Fedor” during the post-fight interview if Lesnar wins. Personally, I don’t see it happening, but it’s the thought that counts. There are countless match-ups for the blue-chip champion if he avenges his only loss. Lesnar’s size and his power make him a dangerous match-up for anyone though. Carwin is really the only fighter that can match him in either department and the rest of the division will have to approach Brock much like a puzzle that they must use their technique to crack.  It is still so hard to predict what Lesnar’s future holds because he hasn’t been tested against a multitude of styles and skill sets yet. One thing is for sure, the more he wins the more money there is to go around in the Zuffa head office. 

 

Frank Mir – Frank Mir has got a lot to say about Brock Lesnar’s rise to success in the UFC.  He tapped Lesnar once and there is no doubt that he wants to do it again, but there are a ton of questions about how Mir really matches up against Lesnar. He was man-handled in the first bout till he pulled out a flashly knee-bar off of a positioning mistake from Lesnar in his SECOND MMA fight.  Lesnar has been a completely different fighter since then but there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Mir could snap a limb at any moment in this fight.  If the old Frank Mir is back, the UFC HW division needs to be on alert because that Mir is no joke.  Any man who becomes the first to finish Big Nog gets a lot of credit, even if Nog was fighting staph and didn’t look great. While he won’t set the HW division afire like Brock might if he wins, he will create quite a buzz as to who might be safe with him on the ground. Heavy handed strikers who can avoid take downs will be chomping at the bit to get their hands on him top flight BJJ big men will be studying his fights so as to make themselves valuable coaches for the wrestlers who are vying for a title shot.  Let us not discount Mir as a viable HW champion with marketable appeal. He simultaneously would serve as cocky villain and Mr. MMA, the man who defended the sport from the professional wrestler. Let’s face the facts, Mir can talk trash with the best and could even create buzz for a fight with the Last Emperor himself.  Mir vs. Lesnar might not actually teach us much about what Mir we are seeing but it will at least bolsters his star to a new generation of fans. 

 

Shane Carwin – Quite possibly the strongest man in the division, despite popular opinion, Carwin has scary knockout power. Anyone who saw the Gonzaga knockout knows that. He brings a lot of the same raw attributes to the cage that Brock brings  but without the star power.  His last fight also taught us that Carwin is going to need to sharpen his striking defense if he is going to compete against the entirety of the division.  Gonzaga almost put him down. I am not totally sure he would have survived the strikes Kongo dished out to Velasquez. I question his ability to compete with the top-flight fighters. There is something about Carwin that troubles me. He has stayed a raw talent longer than I expected and doesn’t show the development that I feel like I have seen from Brock. I can’t put my finger on it though. There is something in the way he presents himself and approaches his fights (in the cage) that indicates that he is relying more on his raw talent than a developing skill-set. I am not in his camp and I don’t know the man personally so its just one mans opinion. I might just be bighting on the hype-machine bait in my belief in Brock over Carwin but I will go on record saying that Shane Carwin is the biggest threat to Brock Lesnar on face value (I must also credit my friend Adam for talking me into that opinion which I now hold without reservation, for at least another week). 

 

Cain Velasquez – Velasquez has been my choice for horse of the division since the beginning of the year. I believe this guy is the future of HW MMA in the UFC. Velasquez may have tore through Kongo but he looked scary mortal. Simultaneously he showed us he had great recovery (not a great chin) and holes in his stand-up that are more than just a little bit problematic for him. I don’t think I have ever seen a fighter win in such dominating fashion and demonstrate a larger hole in his game in one swoop.  I still like him to be a champion some day but he needs to continue to develop those well rounded skills. Kongo is a world class striker, we all know that so he might have already survived the best in that department but if Carwin lands ONE strike solid, I am not sure Velasquez is going to make it past UFC 104.  Mark my words, this is a future champion in this division, the question is now or later.  I tend to think later. The top tier of fighters is filled with athletes that are either more technically sound and experienced or bigger and stronger, both could create big problems for the man with all the Mexican pride. 

 

Randy Couture – Its hard to say the man is over the hill when he dominated (I will say it, he dominated) Brock Lesnar for the better part of 2 rounds before being KOed by someone 60 pounds his better.  That fight purely demonstrated how dangerous the raw size and power can be in this division.  He seems to come up big when people least expect it and I will stand by the contention that he would provide stiff competition for Fedor.  If he gets past a relatively healthy Big Nog, it will be hard to refuse him another title shot down the road. Perhaps he would have to get past another Pride legend in Cro Cop to solidify his shot but I like that match-up for Randy at this point in time.  He is one of the only guys covered here that has very few question marks around him. The only one is age; when will he run out of gas? That question almost seems ridiculous because the more we ask the more he performs.  Randy Couture is a master technician and if you want to beat him, you better bring the best you have. If you don’t you are going to get beat up by 46 year old man. 

 

Antonio Nogueira – The only other man on this list with one question mark is Big Nog. How long does he have? It isn’t as much of an age issue as it is a health issue. Nog has been a victim of the Pride system that has seemingly been less forgiving on the fighters body for those who spent an extensive amount of time embedded within it.  The MMA world loves Nog as much as we love Randy though so one performance with a staph rumor surrounding it is easily forgiven. Nog is maybe simultaneously one of the most dangerous and most at risk fighters with the new breed of wrestler coming to the fore.  He doesn’t have flashy submissions or amazing stand-up but he has heart for days and a chin like a cinder block.  The guy just won’t die. He can and will expose your weaknesses.  Nog is always dangerous. My only regret is that either he or Randy must lose in August. 

 

Mirko Cro Cop – He might not be officially back yet but the word is that he and Dana White have been playing some contract chess and Mirko is winning.  If Mirko gets this deal that is reportedly too good to pass up its check-mate for the Croatian.  Unfortunately, I am not sure he has given anyone a real reason to be excited since he ran through Eddie Sanchez.  I for one was not satisfied by the win over Al-Turk enough to say that Cro Cop is back to his murder machine ways.  How will he fair against guys who can put him on his back and beat him up for 15-25 minutes. He has never shown us a nack for dealing effectively with that before.  Can he really compete with the best of the best in the UFC? I hope and suspect he can put on better shows than we have seen from in the cage thus far.  Mirko Cro Cop is in the very least good for one thing, attention. The MMA world is not going to forget what he did in Japan and any fight he gets will be a potential return to greatness.  Anyone who has shown some dangerous holes in their stand-up game (I am looking at you wrestlers) should beware.  This man will turn you into a highlight in his real, but he has a lot to prove in the UFC before I start drinking the Croatian Kool-Aid again. 

 

Junior Dos Santos – How is this guy not fighting on main cards against top-flight opponents? Honestly? Why is he not fighting Gonzaga, Cro Cop, Herring, Kongo…? He tore Werdum a part and then ran through Lurch like they were not in his league.   I think (hope) he is getting the slow build while the former six on this list work themselves out a bit.  Dos Santos might be the only guy I like more than Velasquez in the long run. Any guy with that kind of stand-up, who trains with the Nogueira brothers is scary.  If his Jitz is even “good” he could be the most dangerous fighter above 205 lbs. The only thing that keeps me a bit reserved is the fact that we haven’t seen him enough. Let’s hope he gets some more attention sooner rather than later and we find out what this guy is all about.

 

Cheick Kongo – Kongo might… MIGHT have the best stand up in the HW division and that alone makes him scary but he will never get his hands on that belt until he develops a serviceable ground game (scramble, take-down defense, etc.) or they ban takedowns in the UFC. I am not betting on the latter. There is no secret to Kongo. He is going to out-strike you and pray you don’t get the fight to the ground. It is that simple.  Until he makes drastic improvements on the ground the UFC can almost decide his fate for him.  If they want him to win they will put him against a striker. If they don’t they will put him against someone who can control where the fight takes place.  I can see him being a test for Dos Santos down the road because his climb to the title got a lot longer after being thrown around like a rag doll by Velasquez. 

 

Gabrial Gonzaga – For some reason I can’t bring myself to give up on this guy. All signs point to him hitting a wall when the competition reaches a certain level. Randy Couture beat him up, plain and simple. Werdum finished him decisively. Carwin knocked him cold. You could say it was a lucky shot but when you get KOed like that with a short punch, there is little room for debate.  I think Gonzaga can still climb the mountain of the HW division but it’s a long road ahead. Cro Cop could get a rematch for rematch sake and everyone listed above him has louder voices in the title shot debate right now. Still, he is a strong HW with KO power and a very good ground game. He is a big threat to the wrestlers in the division because he is a bit more well rounded than some of the other BJJ specialists and probably stronger to boot. He needs to get his head strait and get a breakout win and soon. I would hate to see him cast off, although it would present him with some interesting opportunities outside the UFC. 

 

This is certainly not an exhaustive list of HWs that matter in the UFC but it speaks to the depth of the division. I have said before that it might hit some dead ends in the not too distant future but the UFC deals well with those.  With the winner of Fedor/Barnett the target of UFC tentacles, this could be the hottest division in MMA by the end of the year. For now, it is a division at the mercy of its wrestlers. Its future will be largely decided by what the new big three do or don’t do over the next few fights. Ultimately, it won’t really matter if they win or lose, one direction will be equal to the other and either will keep this division at the fore of UFC marketing. HWs will always sell tickets and will never be far from the main event.  Will the super-wrestlers become the prototype of the new Mixed Martial Artist for big men or will our friends from abroad keep the division honest? 

What's Next for Bobby Lashley

What’s Next for Bobby Lashley?

It took less than four minutes for Bobby Lashley to crush the monster Bob Sapp. It wasn’t really even a close fight.  While beating Sapp does not make someone a top 10 fighter by any stretch of the imagination, it was a step up in competition for a mixed martial artist who is progressing quite nicely and has yet to really be challenged. Now at 4-0 in his professional MMA career, it is time to start taking Lashley somewhat seriously and thinking about what is next for the former WWE superstar. 

The UFC has got to be kicking itself a bit for not doing what it took to get him in the TUF house for season 10.  Who really knows how much of a possibility that ever was but it would have been just more fuel on the fire for an already fascinating season. That doesn’t mean the UFC couldn’t be the next step for Lashley all the same.  Zuffa has created the circumstances for growing division but it’s a division that could meet a lot of dead ends in the not too distant future.  Nog and Couture surely have a few more fights left in them but one of them will be on a two fight losing streak very soon and the other will be on the rebound.  Velasquez and Carwin are the rising stars but it seems somewhat likely that one of them will derail the other soon enough.  Carwin is also no spring chick. Lesnar and Mir could force a rubber match, which would buy some time. Kongo isn’t going to get any further in this division until they ban takedowns or he gets a ground game. Dos Santos is a wild card, who I believe could make a serious run if they give him the right fights.  Herring and Gonzaga are inconsistent drifters right now (much like Kongo).  In short, it’s a stacked division but they could really use a young stud fighter to bring some more energy. Unfortunately for Lashley, the market for ex-pro wrestlers in the UFC is not so great because the position is filled.  Lashley also might not get the time to develop that he hopes for… or at least the time he needs.  Because he would come with hype he might have to step into the bigger events quickly, much like but not to the same extent as Brock.  At the end of the day the UFC would likely gain more from Lashley than he would from them, at least for the time being. Zuffa would get an exciting blue chip draw and Lashley would get put in a pond that might be a bit too big for him. 

The more reasonable solution to me would be signing with Strikeforce or Affliction. The bedfellow relationship between those two organizations is key to HW MMA right now.  The talent pool is as impressive or more so than the one under Zuffa contract.  You know the winner of Fedor/Barnett is going to be a major target for Dana White but neither will be an easy sign.  Lashley could end up getting some quality exposure against quality opponents and could also be developed more carefully. He could easily give some of the more popular HWs a lot of trouble and as long as the Emperor stays out of the UFC, it would give Lashley something to aspire to.  The money and stability are in the UFC, but I think Lashley is more likely to be a superstar if he stays outside for bit longer.  It might also make him a lot more money in the long term.  He would be less likely to run into a super wrestler that could fight fire with fire. A year or two of MMA training and pro fights with the likes of Buentello, Arlovski, Sylvia, Rogers, and Yvel could present him some favorable match-ups and development opportunities before he moves on to either the UFC or fights with Overeem, Fedor, or Barnett. 

To make a long story short, Lashley is the kind of fighter I believe could be very good, but he needs to pick his moves wisely.  Sure he can sustain a lose or two along the way but if he goes about this right, he might not have to. Anyone who has seen him fight knows he has some dominant raw ability, but that will only get him so far. We are entering an era where being a relatively complete fighter is going to be a prerequisite for being a champion, and Lashley is in a great position to develop into just that.