The Prelims
I am not going to go into the entirety of the card but there are more than a few names you should keep in mind during the prelims. Dustin Poirier is a fast rising featherweight with his eye on a title shot. He rides a four fight win streak into a showdown with unbeaten Max Holloway, whom makes his UFC debut. This fight will have serious ramifications on the division, a division that is currently in need of new contenders. Further away from a title shot is Alex Caceres (AKA Bruce Leeroy from TUF). He is 1-2 in his last three fights but he was impressive enough in his last fight for me to raise an eyebrow. I don’t think he is a world-beater but his development is interesting. Caceres has potential and likely doesn’t know how to fight boring so is worth watching, if nothing else to gage his progress. Finally, I think everyone should watch Matt Brown (pictured) fight because Matt Brown is legend. Is he great? No. Is he a supreme athlete? No. Is he a fighter? YES! This guy just loves to fight. Win or lose, Brown brings it and unless his opponent tries to ruin your night, he wont disappoint.
Ed Herman vs Clifford Starks
I don’t know a lot about Clifford Starks except that he is highly touted and unbeaten. Having one UFC win under his belt, Starks is welcomed to the big show by Ed Herman. Herman is the operational definition of a mid tier tough guy at this point in his career. He is a very well rounded ginger and would be hard to walk through. This is a solid opening fight for the main card and should set the tone for a high-energy night of fights.
Scott Jorgensen (#4 BW) vs Renan Pegado (#7 BW)
Condit vs Diaz is the front-runner for fight of the night but this fight is a close second. If the bantamweight division were higher profile this fight could co headline just about any show. Jorgensen is a former title contender that is 7-1 in his last 8 (losing only to Dominick Cruz – the champion). He is a high motor fighter that pushes the pace and breaks his opponent’s will. Aside from Cruz, Pegado represents Jorgensen’s biggest test to date. Pegado (pictured) is on a 27 fight win streak, coming off his best win of his career against Brad Pickett, making him my bantamweight fighter to watch in 2012. The winner of this fight could earn a title shot or at least a number one contender fight. Both are game strikers with strong, yet different ground games. Don’t sleep on this fight, as it is probably the second best fight on the card.
Josh Koscheck (#4 WW) vs Mike Pierce
Love him or hate him, Josh Koscheck wins fights. The thing is, that “hate him” part is rooted in his crass persona, a persona that has earned him the title of a bully. Koscheck’s bullying is what caused Mike Pierce (pictured) to call him out. Pierce is somewhat of a conundrum. He is 5-2 in the UFC, loses coming to Johny Hendricks and Jon Fitch. Some people are excited about his skill set and his progression as a fighter. While I count myself among them, Pierce is yet to step up and win the big fight. Both men are strong wrestlers so expect a lot of leather to be thrown as their grappling negates and this turns into a striking battle. A win puts Koscheck in the title conversation, as the interim champion may have to defend once before Georges St. Pierre returns to the cage. Keep an eye out for an upset though because Pierce could emerge as a top 10 WW if he can back up his brash challenge.
Roy Nelson (#10 HW) vs Fabricio Werdum (#7 HW)
You might remember Fabricio Werdum as “that guy who beat Fedor” but Werdum has been a perennial top 10 heavyweight for some time now. Despite an unimpressive performance from time to time Werdum has been quite imposing more times than not, losing only to Dos Santos and Overeem in his last 7 fights. Roy Nelson (pictured) is in the process of redeeming himself for fighting so grossly out of shape against Frank Mir and looking to shake the “fat guy” image. Nelson’s transformation over his past three fights has been shocking. He doesn’t even look like the same person. However, some speculate that he might not be able to maintain his power and top control without the extra weight. His frame is starting to look more and more like a light heavyweight’s. I suspect this fight will be largely conducted on the feet or in the clinch. Both are quite confident in their hands and despite having high level grappling backgrounds, both prefer knockouts. The winner of this stands to gain a great deal of momentum moving forward this year but since both have lost to the current champ their roads will be long ones. Watch Nelson to see how is cardio holds up if the fight makes it past the middle of the second and pay attention to which man is willing to apply the pressure. I think both have a lot to prove right now and should feel a sense of urgency at this opportunity.
Carlos Condit (#2 WW) vs Nick Diaz (#3 WW)
This is the big one folks. This fight ranks up with Machida/Shogun and JDS/Velasquez in my most anticipated fights ever list. It isn’t because they are pound for pound ranked or unbeaten juggernauts but because these are two high level fighters that always bring the fight to their opponents. You won’t find either man’s will being broken in the cage, nor will you see either man give the other the smallest break. Condit (below) and Diaz (right) are killers, finishers and both have demonstrated extreme toughness and resilience. Any fight can end early but if I were a betting man I wouldn’t use stolen money to bet on either fighter; instead I would put it on at least three rounds of excitement.
By way of background I would first and foremost direct you to the UFC Primetime series on this fight. Watching all three will take less than 90 minutes of your life but you will be well versed in the somewhat complex road each man has faced over the last year. Everyone knows Diaz. He is brash, talking trash and flipping off everyone who passes him. I suspect there are two things about Diaz that drive his persona, a persona that fans buy hook line and sinker: he knows how to get what he wants in the business and he legitimately has to cultivate anger in himself to fight. Diaz backs it all up in the cage though. He wins fights and he breaks people. His cardio is off the charts, allowing him to push the pace as long as he needs to. The most dangerous part about Diaz might be his terrifying ground game. No one wants to stay on the ground very long with him and that allows him to open up his awkward boxing. He will need to bring everything from his hate to his submission game to UFC 143 though, because the guy across from him might be the most underrated fighter in the world.
In 35 fights I do not believe Nick Diaz has met anyone quite like Carlos Condit. Condit is a finisher. He has lost one fight in the last 13, finishing 11 out of 12 of his bested opponents. In the process he has put on impressive performances against rising stars Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald, highly regarded and both current and future contenders in the welterweight division. He hits hard, transitions well, and can compete wherever the fight goes. The Diaz hype and the fans desire to see Diaz vs GSP has falsely taken much of the spotlight away from Condit but do not be fooled, this man is no underdog. If this fight ends early it will likely be at the end of a Condit hook, as he is known for his power and intelligence in adjusting his strikes to his opponent. If he can keep up with Diaz these two might just be the perfect storm for fight of the year.
When the dust settles this, like every other fight, will be settled in the cage. I expect fireworks from bell to bell. Diaz hasn’t turned up the trash talk against Condit, reserving his harshest words for GSP but I don’t suspect that will change the way he fights come Saturday night. On the other side of the cage, Condit will be looking to show everyone just how underrated he is coming into this fight, spoiling everyone’s plans for GSP vs Diaz. If you are only going to watch one fight this year consider making this that fight.
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