As UFC event increase in frequency and more and more fighters reach headlining status regardless weather or not they hold a title, we are not guaranteed gold on the line with every major UFC event, let alone two straps. The last time we saw two titles on the line at the biggest show of them all was UFC 100. Twelve UFCs later we find ourselves in Abu Dhabi and Zuffa has busted about the big guns as two of the most dominant champion in Anderson Silva and BJ Penn will defend against game but heavy underdogs. The event also features a throwback fight and two relatively interesting, competitive contests. We all know the drill and we have all seen the lineup, but how do the fights break down.
Terry Etim vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Etim and Dos Anjos are largely invisible to the mainstream MMA fan but this might be the front-runner for fight of the night to those familiar with their work. Neither guy has made huge waves yet in the UFC but both are on respectable win streaks and will be looking to make the most of their opportunity on the big show. Most importantly however both guys love to bring an exciting fight. I don’t expect you are going to see a lot of stagnant guard play on the ground. This will be a story of sweeps, scrambles, and stand-up exchanges. I expect a great deal of action for 15 minutes and give the light edge to the more complete fighter. Etim has faced some tough competition and some tough BJJ practitioners without being submitted and I expect his athleticism to be enough to stay out of trouble. You are safer betting on this being fight of the night than you are betting on the result.
Kendall Grove vs Mark Munoz
Another toss-up fight in my mind finds former blue-chip wrestling prospect vs an inconsistent physical anomaly. Neither guy has show that they are ready to move to the next level yet both fighters have shown a great amount of potential. Kendall Grove seems to have figured “it” out and has come into the last few fights in good shape, with a clear head, and a solid game plan. He uses his lanky body well to keep the distance and himself out of submissions, all the while keeping his opponents in danger of finding himself in precarious hold. Munoz seems to have recovered from his devastating knockout/return to earth courtesy of Matt Hamill. Mr. Munoz also has some punching power that could humble a man with a questionable chin like Grove. Put that on top of the fact that he trains with some of the best and most experienced fighters in the world and you can see why he is the slight favorite in the fight. However I like Grove to control where the fight goes. He has tapped better wrestlers and stood up with better punchers. Grove could get caught but I don’t see him getting controlled in this fight. As long as he can keep the fight where he wants it, I see him eventually figuring out how to finish Munoz.
Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie
The UFC’s favorite game for the better part of the last ten years has been to match Matt Hughes up against one dimensional fighters that are not physically in his league. Hughes is a physically gifted athlete that has for years had some of the best wrestling in MMA. For Matt Hughes there is good news and bad. What is that you say? You want the bad news first? Bad News: Matt Hughes has seen better days and every time we see him, we see a worse Matt Hughes. Now for the good news; Renzo Gracie has seen better days and has likely never been quite the fighter that Matt Hughes has. Like most people who enjoy or for some other reason are writing about MMA, I expect 15 minutes of Hughes in top position avoiding submissions and hitting Gracie as many times as he can manage. Don’t expect fireworks on the feet, dynamic sweeps, or flashy submissions. Either Gracie catches Hughes in a submission or he gets bullied for 3 rounds. I expect the latter.
Franky Edgar vs BJ Penn
A lot of people see Franky Edgar as the most formidable challenge to BJ Penn sense he secured himself at the top of the Light-Heavyweight division. The development of his standup and his ability to control the fight with his wrestling are both good signs, pointing in the direction of his competitiveness in this fight. That said, BJ Penn has yet see anything that resemble trouble in defending his belt and I don’t see that changing. Penn’s boxing should outclass Edgar all night and his takedown defense should allow Penn to control where the fight takes place, regardless of Edger’s wrestling pedigree. Is there a chance that Edgar can win? Of course there is a chance. Edgar has been extremely impressive recently and could shock the world. Unfortunately for Edger there may not be a fighter alive that can crack the BJ Penn puzzle at 155 pounds. Edgar needs to pick his shots carefully, move in and out quickly, and hope to wear down Penn. That is easier said that done because Penn just has to be Penn.
Damien Maia vs Anderson Silva
When Vitor Belfort went down to injury I was downtrodden as I held that Belfort represented the most serious threat to Silva’s reign to date. However Joe Silva made the best out of a bad situation and pulled the trigger on a fight that tilted a lot of heads, but in the end raised quite a few smiles. I love watching Damien Maia fight because I think the man is an absolute wizard when it comes to submissions. He is going to need every bit of that wizardry to meet his next challenge in one of the greatest fighters of all time. This bout harkens us back to the old days of the UFC, the clash of styles. Who will control where the fight takes place? Will submissions or striking take the night? One thing is for sure; whatever happens should be spectacular. If Anderson Silva has his way, he should be able to knock out Maia in highlight real style. If Maia has his way he will tap the greatest fighter in the division’s (if not the sport’s) history. After seeing Maia get lawn darted by Nate Marquardt, I tend to think this fight will go the way of the odds, with Anderson Silva’s greatness well in tact. If the fight goes to the ground, hold your breath because we could be seconds away from history, but don’t start holding your breath for a Maia win until then.
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