Thursday, August 27, 2009

Fedor vs. Rogers: A Carefully Planned Risk

The owners and operators of Strikeforce must be absolutely terrified as much as they are absolutely excited. They signed the golden goose but you can’t just put him on your mantle if you want to make money. Fedor has to fight and fight he will. Fedor is to Strikeforce what EliteXC tried to make Kimbo. Word is that Strikeforce has invested a lot in Fedor and lets face facts, Fedor is only worth as much as his unbeatable mystique to the average fan. Diehard MMA fans will be there no matter what, Fedor or not. However, if you want to survive in this business you need more than the MMA faithful. Stikeforce needs a broader fan-base. The legend of Fedor can bring that in, but only the LEGEND of Fedor. I guess what I am trying to say is Strikeforce is in a world of trouble if Fedor loses. This is probably their motivation for putting Fedor in the cage (wow, Fedor is going to be in a cage) with the greenest heavyweight in their stable, Brett Rogers. While Rogers is the greenest of the legit Heavyweights to match with Fedor, he is also one of the most popular to an American audience, with his exciting knockouts and recent victory over The Pitbull Arlovski. A few posts back I argued with myself a bit about what would be the best choice here and came to no conclusions but with the fight now staring us all in the face I have to say, this is starting to look like the best possible scenario for Strikeforce and MMA.

Brett Rogers is the lowest risk and potentially highest reward opponent for Fedor at this juncture. He is one-dimensional and likely presents less technical problems for Fedor than any other fighter. Fedor will be heavily favored in this fight. That is not to say that Rogers should be counted out and the possibility of Fedor losing had to be considered by the powers that be. Rogers actually might pose a slightly greater threat than some of the other fighters (this is my opinion) because he is so raw but constantly improving, making him somewhat less predictable. He is tough as nails and hungry to win. He fights for his family and that makes him dangerous. Fedor’s big swinging punches better land before Rogers’ does because I don’t like anyone’s chin against a few shots from Grim. If the Emperor is dethroned in this most unceremonial of fashions, Strikeforce and company may have more to gain from Rogers winning than Werdum or Overeem. Rogers will be identified as a Strikeforce guy (no one will remember his EliteXC work in a year or so) so they can claim him as the first pure Strikeforce fighter. Additionally, he will inherit at least some of Fedor’s unbeatable aura given that he is in fact unbeaten and would have pulled two of the biggest upsets in MMA history in a row. Finally, Brett Rogers can easily recover from a loss to Fedor. The MMA world will just shake its collective head and say he wasn’t ready, but they won’t lose interest in the young prospect. We can still watch him grow and become a more complete and capable fighter, climbing his way back to a rematch. This benefit of the doubt would likely not be given to Werdum or Overeem and would be less likely given to Rogers if he was built up a little more.

Rogers presents a reasonable (in fact interest) challenge for Fedor and offers less of a loss in all possible scenarios. I, for one, just hope this fight lasts a few rounds. I would like to see Rogers put on a good showing and at least hang in there. While I think an upset is well within the realm of possibilities, I don’t want to see Fedor lose at this point in time. I have spoken of the Fedor mythos before. The Last Emperor’s legacy is not just important to Strikeforce, it is important to MMA.

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