The Big Heavyweight Questions

Brock Lesnar’s recent sickness has raised more questions than you can shake a stick for the UFC and Dana White. Will Brock Lesnar ever fight again? What to do with the title? Who should be in the interim title fight? Who should fight Carwin next? There are clearly more questions than answers at this point, particularly when you consider Nog and Gonzaga have staph infection and Carwin is taking some time off to recover from minor surgery and see his child be born. UFC heavyweights are dropping like flies right now, leaving only two blue chip, up and comers and a slew of rebounding vets to vie for attention.

The biggest question the UFC HW division faces regards weather or not Brock Lesnar will ever fight again. This is the biggest and unfortunately least answerable question we have. My gut tells me that we will see Brock sometime after November 2010. The Ultimate 2010 could be primed for a unification fight or we could have to wait a bit longer. At the end of the day, its all a guess. Brock may or may not fight again and his influence on the sport will be a topic for discussion when we know more. In the mean time an interim title fight seem inevitable Unfortunately the two most marketable prospects are out injured. Shane Carwin was told he would get a title shot and it seems pretty reasonable to assume that he will either fight for the interim title or he will get the first crack after one is crowned. If the UFC doesn’t decide to crown a champion before Carwin and/or Nog are ready to return it seems pretty reasonable to expect them to fight when they are healthy. I for one hope to see the UFC crown a champion a bit sooner, say… January. Many rumors continue to fly that Velasquez and Nog will push their date back and Junior Dos Santos will act as welcoming committee for a former champion returning to the UFC (yet to be specified), but I think that if Dos Santos and Velasquez are read and willing they should be lined up for one another.

Being booked to fight at UFC 108 has seemed like n injury sentence for the big boys but Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez remain standing. The two unbeatens seem to be the last two HWs worth mentioning in line for a title shot and not on the shelf till March. However, only rumors circulate about the possibility of the two meeting one another at the first UFC show of 2010. The fight makes entirely too much sense for me to imagine them actually passing on it, leading me to presume the question of weather or not an interim title should be on the line is being discussed behind the scenes. The UFC needs champions and despite the lack of marketability that these two fighters bring to the table, they could put a title around a waist and set up a potential unification bout in the future. Neither man would bring a ton of credibility by themselves to a fight with Lesnar, even if they got a win or two under their belts. However, unification bouts always bring about interest. Considering how quickly the ear is coming to an end it would seem pretty certain that we will hear something regarding Dos Santos’ opponent for UFC 108 this week, which will tell us a great deal about the UFC’s plans for the division. His opponent will in one way or another implicate Velasquez’s next fight, which will in turn implicate Nog and Carwin’s next fights as well. Some clarity should come sooner rather than later but until then, The UFC needs to pull out all the stops to lift the recent injury curse placed upon them.

UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin - Preview

Just an hour before the main card airs I realized I never actually posted my preview of this show, so here it is. I remain utterly disappointed in the last minute demise of the Karo/Haz fight as Dustin Hazellet is one of my favorite fighters to watch, yet the card should still deliver all the same.

The UFC has been plagued with injuries recently and this card was one of the first victims of this recent run of bad luck. Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin will headline a card that was to originally feature the two biggest HWs in the UFC. Fortunately for the UFC one injury resulted in a more marketable match. Ortiz vs Coleman would not have stacked up to the rematch that is the current namesake of the event. It is also fortunate that the UFC had planned a really strong event from the get go, leaving UFC 106 at least interesting to the devoted MMA fan and headlined by two of the most widely popular fighters the sport has known.

Kendall Grove vs Jake Rosholt

Like many MMA fans I was ready to give up on Rosholt as an MMA contender but his most recent performance has made me think twice. Few fighters have the wrestling pedigree he posses, but that will mean little to his MMA career if he cannot continue to develop those skills and mold them. Kendall Grove is no cakewalk for anyone, let alone the much shorter, less experienced Rosholt. In some regards this fight looks like it has been designed as a test for Rosholt to see how he deals with a stand-up fighter with range. In others, it seems like it could be a rebound for Grove. Either way the fight seems like a must win for both fighters. If Grove can keep the distance he should be able to get back to winning, but he has had problems staying on his feet before. The time is now for both fighters to prove they were worth the hype.

Ben Saunders vs Marcus Davis

It is hard to believe that Marcus Davis only has three losses in the UFC and one of them came in his first UFC bout. It is also hard for me to conceptualize Davis as an TUF fighter. He will face a fellow Alum in Killa B, who at one time thought he could be Anderson Silva, and may still believe that to some extent. What Saunders has in confidence, he still must build in pure skill though. Davis should be able to test his chin, his heart, and his ability to adapt in a fight. Unfortunately for Davis, Saunders presents the one thing that Davis has struggled with in his UFC tenure, reach.

Amir Sadollah vs Phil Baroni

How can I put this nicely? I don’t care about this fight in the least. I haven’t been impressed with Amir Sadollah past upsetting another fighter I didn’t care much for on TUF and I haven’t found Phil Baroni interesting in years. Maybe one of them will impress me but I am not holding my breath.

Luiz Cane vs Angonio Rogerio Nogueira

This might as well be the main event for me. Little Nog was arguably the best Light-Heavyweight not under Zuffa contract. Finally he comes to the biggest company in the sport and the cake-walks are over. Luiz Cane is one of the most underrated fighters in any organization. His stand-up has been scary precise and he might as well be 4-0, given his DQ loss came in a fight he was dominating. Both of these men are well rounded future contenders. In terms of skill, this fight could headline a lot of cards, particularly this one but both fighters will really be looking to take a step towards one of the most coveted titles in all of MMA.

Josh Koscheck vs Anthony Johnson

This last minute addition adds some excitement and some name value to the card for sure, but in reality it could be a front runner to steal fight of the night. Both Johnson and Koscheck have been headhunting lately, constantly looking for the big KO. Josh Koscheck may be better off returning to his roots though as skillful wrestling may be a little too much control on the ground for Rumble to deal with. Johnson’s reach and power might be an issue for Koscheck, although his fight with Alvez may just give Kos the confidence he needs to stand in the pocket and bang. To me this fight is going to hinge on strategy as much as anything else. We are dealing with two of the most athletic guys in the sport. Kos’ experience will certainly play to his advantage but it wont be enough to leave Kos free reign to take the fight wherever he wants and impose his will.

Tito Ortiz vs Forrest Griffin

Tito Ortiz has received a lot of flack for the precieved downturn in his career as of late but upon review things haven’t been that bad. Tito lost to Machida (later to become champion), tied Rashad Evans (later to become champion) after being penalized a point, lost to Chuck Liddell (champion at the time), and earned a controversial victory over Forrest Griffin (later to become champion). Notice a pattern here? All this while Tito was apparently fighting an injury. It should come as no surprise that now the “old Tito” is back according to Zuffa, but that is what we heard before his last three fights. Forrest Griffin is in the closest thing to a must win that he has seen in the UFC. Sure, his popularity would buy him 2-3 more fights and it would be highly unlikely that we would ever see him cut from a Zuffa contract but a loss here would really move him back a few paces. Coming off the most devastating loss I think I have ever seen anyone take, a good showing will not be enough. Tito on the other hand really has to back up the talk this time. In reality it’s the perfect storm for this fight to put butts in seats and actually deliver, despite its lack of relevance on the title picture at 205. Lets hope its also enough to bring some attention to the card as it’s filled with talent and strong match-making.

UFC 105: Couture vs Vera - Review

UFC 106 was a strange event. On one hand I enjoyed watching it and was pretty content with the results as a whole. On the other, I had a hard time getting excited for the card both as it approached and as it faded into the background of my weekend. When I ran into some friends later and was asked about UFC 106 it was hard for me to care to explain any more than the basic results. I don’t know if this is because it followed a very entertaining Strikeforce card and has been overwhelmed by disappointing news about injuries and mysterious diseases or if it was because the card just lacked a certain zest both on paper and in reality. When it boils down to it, this card was free and few could complain about what it had to offer for the price.

Ross Pearson looked really good fighting a game opponent in Aaron Riley. I think Riley has been a bit underrated for quite some time but Pearson may have proven me wrong. Give credit where credit is due, Pearson came in and put on a show that outdid anything we saw from his season on The Ultimate Fighter (from ANY fighter), but this definitely changes where I conceptualize both fighters in the Light-Heavyweight division. Pearson is all the sudden an interesting prospect and Riley is a guy I might be more interested in seeing in the WEC (where I think he could win a lot of fights).

Speaking of putting on a show, there are few fighters I enjoy watching more than Matt Brown. James Wilks put up a better fight than I expected but Brown willed out another win. To be honest, I didn’t think The Immortal looked as good in this fight as his last few but it was enough to get another win. I think this was also the finish of the night. It certainly wasn’t going to win any awards but the way in which Brown rolled his way out of the submission and into mount (intentional or not) had the folks at my house stunned. Matt Brown has a long long way to go before he is championship material but I don’t think he would give anyone in the division an easy night.

Denis Kang’s best years might be behind him. I really believed that he was going to put on a great show here. The first round completely belonged to Kang, but that didn’t last. Michael Bisping got back to his winning ways and that is all that really matters in this fight. We learned that Bisping has the ability to bounce back from a tough loss. In fact, getting beat down for the better part of the first round only makes his bounce back more impressive.

Dan Hardy is going to get a shot at the Welterweight Title. I really never thought I would type those words after Hardy’s first few fights but he has worked his way up the ranks and now sits in exactly the right spot at exactly the right time. This was more like the Swick I have expected we would see eventually; facing a game opponent, but that doesn’t mean that Swick is a pushover. The fight wasn’t stunning, it wasn’t amazing, and it was a little closer than the scorecards indicated. However, it was enough to get us a number one contender for GSP’s title. Now Hardy will take about 10 steps up in competition and fight a pound-for-pound great. I hope his trash-talk is up to par for this one.

I really don’t remember the last time I heard so many people down on Randy Couture after a fight. He had almost become one of those untouchable fighters, impervious to criticism by the masses. However, 15 minutes of holding Brandon Vera against the cage and grinding out a win will do some strange things to the MMA world. The Truth clearly got the best of Couture when there was any distance between the two but once Randy got him clinched against the cage things changed. Unfortunately for Vera, that was were about 85% of the fight took place. I haven’t been high on Vera for quite some time. In fact, I have found him to be a bit overrated, but he showed me a lot in this fight, much more than Randy did. Vera’s stand-up is looking sharper every day. He took the disappointing and somewhat controversial loss with a lot of class and made an all time great work real real hard for a win. Some people, Joe Rogan most notably, were convinced that Vera should and would get the nod for this effort but I am not particularly upset when Couture’s hand was raised. He dictated the pace and pushed Vera around. I scored it 29-28 Couture but if I watched it again in another context I could have gone the other direction. It was that close to me. For the first time in quite a while I will be looking forward to seeing Brandon Vera’s next fight and for the first time in even longer I haven’t given much thought at all to who will fight Randy Couture. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t think Randy is done. I just think he is going to have some serious trouble with the most stacked division in MMA and his performance didn’t leave me wanting more.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers - Review

I honestly can’t remember an event that seemed to go so smoothly for both the promotion putting on the show and the fans watching. UFC 100 might have come close but there was less on the line and less to truly gain. Strikeforce needed to score big with this event and they needed certain fighters to put their best foot forward. I think all those fighters did just that, but Strikeforce got a few bonuses. They got a 5 round title fight that was not as boring as some people say it was. They 4 HWs that people will legitimately want to see again. Finally, they got a LHW champion that continues to build his case as a top ranked fighter in the class and truly dangerous champion.

Fabricio Werdum vs Antonio Silva

This fight had an odd appeal at the end of the night for me. I came into it really stumped on who would come out on top and the two ended up being as evenly matched in the cage as they were in my head. The amount of effort that Werdum had to put forth to grind out that win almost became the narrative of the fight. He seemed to gain control as time went by but Silva made absolutely no part of that fight easy for him. Both fighters came out in good graces I think. Silva still looked good and Werdum get a solid, hard earned, and most importantly public win.

Gegard Mousasi vs Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

It was unfortunate that Strikeforce didn’t want to put the title on the line here but it is hard to blaim them. Sokodjou is likely going to win the Super-Hulk Tournament, which has become the trendiest punch-line in MMA since Ken Shamrock’s fall from grace, and surely no one in the organization wanted to chance seeing their champion associated with such a spectacle. Mousasi is one of the most impressive and interesting young fighters in my book. Outside of Fedor, there is likely no fighter I would be more excited to see against Zuffa contracted talent. He really showed that he has the skills and the mental prowess to be a top competitor. Despite having trouble dealing with the speed and power of Soko early, Mousasi leveled the playing-field with his technique, conditioning, and calm. Hopefully we will see Mousasi defend his title against a top talent sooner rather than later, although he is quickly knocking off the biggest names outside the UFC. On the other hand Sokoudjou proved that he is dangerous. There is no doubt that we will see him again in Strikeforce sooner rather than later.

Jason Miller vs Jake Shields

It was a foregone conclusion that Jake Shields would be the new MW champion of Strikeforce, but I don’t think many people really expected him to be challenged. No one told Miller who was suppose to win and he refused to die. Many seem to be quick to criticize Shields for winning a boring fight and Miller for not being able to do more. However, I tend to think this is was simply a classic case of a scrap that pitted will vs skill. Miller was outclassed but he made it a rough night for Shields. If round three would have been 20 seconds longer the outcome would have likely been quite different. I thought the result was a solid title fight, leaving me wanting to see both guys fight again.

Fedor Emelianenko vs Bret Rogers

Much like Shogun in his most recent fight, Bret Rogers stock actually raised in a loss. I don’t remember the last time I saw a fighter lose definitively and gain as much respect as Grim. There is no shame in losing to the greatest fighter in the world but Rogers pushed him into the second round (no small feet) and had him in a good deal of trouble in round one. Not very many people can say the broke the nose of the baddest man on the planet, Rogers can. Additionally, we saw that Rogers is capable of holding his own on the ground, at least in terms of positioning and sweeps, much of that helped by his size. Fedor on the other hand proved again that no matter what you bring to the table, The Last Emperor has the answer. Should he have beaten Bret Rogers? Yes. However, every time Fedor wins his legend grows stronger. Eventually champions fall but Fedor just wins and wins and wins. He gave Strikeforce an early Christmas present, an entertaining fight with an exclamation point at the end. Fedor is the uncrowned champion of all MMA heavyweights, not just Strikeforce’s. Now who is next for The Last Emperor of MMA?

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers - Preview

Nothing in the sport of MMA generates the big fight feel for dedicated fans like a Fedor fight. The Last Emperor has crafted a mystique that perplexes and intrigues fight fans like no other. Brock Lesnar may call up more PPV buys but Fedor Emelianenko is for all intent and purposes the undisputed heavyweight champion of MMA. The fact that he cannot be found in the most readily available organization in the sport only perpetuates the uniqueness of his persona and in turn the uniqueness of the cards he fights on. Seeing Fedor fight is like a treat. He has only spent 8 minutes and 42 seconds fighting in sanctioned MMA contests in the last two and a half years plus (34 months). Its not just that he is good, he is rare. Any card headed by Fedor is worth seeing but Strikeforce has pulled out all the stops to ensure that MMA fans flock to CBS Saturday night, hoping they can make a big mark in the MMA business and firmly establish themselves as the number two organization in the world.

Fabricio “Vaia Cavalo” Werdum vs Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva

Until recently I have been a bit surprised at how underhyped this fight has been, even among the MMA faithful. Werdum has proved inconsistent but dangerous if nothing else over the last 3 years or so. The improvements I saw him make the UFC before being dropped off the face of the earth by Dos Santos were quite staggering. His striking is more than serviceable and his ground game is capable of putting just about anyone away. However, on this night he meets a giant… a giant with a skill set very similar to his own. Bigfoot Silva will likely be a bit slower anywhere the fight goes, but his size and power could make up for those disadvantages, depending on his ability to dictate the pace and range of the fight. This fight will have significant bearing on the Strikeforce HW division. Although the winner will likely have to wait for a title shot as the winner of the event’s namesake should be on deck.

Gegard “The Dreamcatcher” Mousasi vs Rameau Thierry “The Affrican Assassin” Sokodjou (Non-Title Fight)

The Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Mousasi will not be defending his title but he has a big opportunity to build on his growing reputation as the hottest MMA prospect on the plant. Mousasi is on a 13 fight win streak that has acted as his battering ram into the consciousness of the MMA world. That streak includes a win at the Dream Middleweight Tournament, an easy victory over a bigger Mark Hunt, and an absolute destruction of Babalu Sobral to claim the his LHW title. He went from little known fighter to top 10, likely top 5, light-heavyweight in the world. Sokodjou presents explosive power along with a knack for upsets and this fight was the legitimate MMA fight that everyone thought would cap off the Super-Hulk tournament. The only downside to this fight is that it is not for the LHW title, a move no one can really blame Strikeforce for. It’s a division that has heated up as of late with signings and rumors so Mousasi will be busy regardless of the outcome.

Jason “Mayhem” Miller vs Jake Shields (Middleweight Championship Fight)

This card was at one time supposed to boast 3 title fights but when the dust settled, the crowning of the vacant Middleweight champion was all that was left. Jason Miller has been all over the place in MMA, mostly fighting the good fight and strengthening MMA on all fronts. He was a key contributor to the first and only academic publication focusing on MMA title Fighting For Acceptance (which you should go buy and read if you are an MMA fan, even if you aren’t a fan of pointy-head books because this is not one of them). He hosts Bully Beat Down. He has retired and unretired and he is never short on words. Now he gets a shot at being the champion of the Strikeforce MW division, relevant considering who stands atop the MW world of MMA. Standing in his way is longtime EliteXC Welterweight champion Jake Shields. Shields has recently expressed his interest in running two divisions at once and setting his sights on the Strikeforce Welterweight championship after this fight. Looking very impressive in his last hand full of fights, he is likely the favorite coming into this. Lucky for fight fans, Miller has never cared who was suppose to win fights.

Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko vs Brett “The Grim” Rogers

Brett Rogers is bigger, stronger, undefeated, and has a wicked mohawk. Fedor Emelanenko is Fedor, the most devastating and dominating heavyweight in the history of MMA. There aren’t great metaphors for Fedor in other sports but Roger Federer might have worked when he was on his huge streak and people were calling him the greatest player of all time. Hype aside this is a dangerous fight. Rogers made shorter work of Andrei Arlovski than Fedor did and this is one fan that truly believes that was no fluke. If there was anything lucky about that fight, it was that AA may have been underestimating Grim. Be sure that Fedor should not make the same mistake. Rogers’ stand-up is game and his power is not to be taken lightly. As far as toughness goes, if anyone can match the Russian it is the guy who was working at a tire shop and fight on Elite XC main cards up until about a year ago. If you are looking for a fight, these two will bring it. Fedor will have the advantage in almost every measurable category except maybe (and that is a very serious maybe) power. The odds are stacked against The Grim but if your asking the who will beat Fedor question; he seems as reasonable an answer as any at this point. I for one think that Strikeforce chose Rogers because he is so inexperienced and presumably one-dimensional. They don’t REALLY want Fedor to lose but MMA fans know as well as anyone what happens when you assume someone will win. This is a dangerous fight for Fedor; however, I said that before the last two Fedor fights. When those fights were done I said I would never doubt Fedor again. I never said I wasn’t fickle.

Heavyweight Rankings (October 2009)

So I want to give a quick rundown of the divisions and the best way to do that is to jot down a quick top 10 and a few comments. It will sort of set the stage as I return to blogging regularly. As with MMA priorities in general… I start with the big guys and work my way down.

1. Fedor Emelianenko – No Surprise here as The Last Emperor gets on board with yet another number two organization in U.S. MMA and leaves us with more questions than answers. I truly hope that Fedor is not looking on second past the Brett Rogers fight in November because Rogers is a tough man who is as motivated and hungry as anyone in the sport. Fedor will get the chance to show the world just how good he is, now lets see if he gets it done.

2. Brock Lesnar – It almost hurts to put him here. Not that I have anything against him but his rise was so quick and his star is now shining so bright that I think it hasn’t fully registered with me. You can talk all you want about the advantageous match-ups that he has been given but the fact remains that he has three solid wins in a row and hasn’t looked to be in too much trouble at any point in any of them. He will have plenty more chances to show the world he is legit and plenty of time to learn and grow in the sport.

3. Big Nog – I will stand by it, the Big Nog we saw fight Randy Couture had almost nothing in common with the one we saw fight Frank Mir. The Nog we saw the last time out was stronger, faster, and much more confident in the cage. That is the Nog I want to see fight and the Nog that I surprisingly enough think would make Brock work hard for a win. His bounce back from disappointment and a big loss is almost as impressive to me as it would be if he had finished Mir. This pick is more based on skill than recent record but you get the point.

4. Josh Barnett – I declared that I no longer cared what happened to Barnett after his last Affliction debacle and I really don’t. I am just not that interested in seeing him fight right now. It doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the best HWs in the world.

5. Cain Velasquez – The lack of recognition for this guy and his skills is a headscratcher. He has looked nothing but impressive, even showing solid recovery time and resilience in his mauling of Kongo. Rothwell proved to be nothing but a speedbump and Velasquez is looking more and more like a top contender every day.

6. Brett Rogers – I had Arlovski quite high on my list before he fougth Grim and I think a young fighter can get a bit of a boost just for fighting Fedor these days. Many of Roger’s early performances were not that impressive to me but when he KOed AA and then talked us all through exactly how he did it, it couldn’t really be called a fluke. He looked sharper in his last few fights and I have been really impressed with him as of late.

7. Shane Carwin – I am not nearly as high on Carwin as I am Velasquez but you can’t deny that he has the wins. I really don’t think he is deserving of or ready for a title shot but we will find out about all that in January.

8. Frank Mir – Mir is another guy that I am not really that high on. I think he could enjoy marginal success in the UFC if he gets the right match-ups but his last two wins have a air of doubt surrounding them given the match-ups and circumstances of both. Wins are wins and he is still in my top 10, despite thinking the two fighters that follow him are flat out better then he is.

9. Junior Dos Santos – Dos Santos is a guy that I think could give Brock problems. He is also a blue chip prospect in my book. I am excited to see him fight Gonzaga in 2010 because I think it will be a good test for the Brazilian striker. I would like to put him at about 7 but his record just doesn’t support it.

10. Andreia Arlovski – I know the guy is coming off two brutal knockouts but before that AA had really put together a nice string of victories. He is the kind of guy that can get back to his winning ways real quick. I hope that someone in the MMA world makes sure he is challenged by a legit HW in the not too distant future.

Light-Heavyweight Rankings (October 2009)

It is probably the most electrifying and stacked division in the world today. Recent fighter movement and activity has actually made the division outside of the UFC pick up a little ground against the sports powerhouse organization. There are enough great fighters that the retirement of Quinton Jackson actually leaves only a minor dent in the talent pool represented here by my top 10.

1. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida – Many people think Shogun Rua is the uncrowned king of this division but the only people who really matter saw Machida as the winner. Until they have their rematch, The Dragon is still the unbeaten champion of the most stacked division in all of MMA.

2. Maricio “Shogun” Rua – I actually moved Shogun up 2 spots after his loss to Machida. I honestly think it was his best fight to date, demonstrating a skill set similar to the one we had all grown to know and love and coupling that with a patience I am not sure we have ever seen from Shogun. Rua certainly deserves another crack at the champion and he will no doubt get just that before its all said and done.

3. Rashad Evans – With Rampage retiring I have to give the nod to Sugar Rashad who looked somewhat unbeatable before he met Machida. Rashad is well rounded enough to give almost anyone fits. Unfortunately for him the only step up on my list represents his only, yet crushing, defeat.

4. Gegard Mousasi – Mousasi claims this spot by process of elimination. He may only have one quality win at 205 but he was lighting up the competition at MW and Superhulk before that. Everyone else near the top of this list has suffered from either really poor performances or devastating loses as of late. Mousasi is the real deal.

5. Thiago Silva – Silva roared back with a vengence against Keith Jardine and looked to get right back on track for a title shot. He gets to be involved in one of the most interesting style match-ups I have seen in a long time with Rashad Evans, a fight that was suppose to happen over a year ago I believe. Silva could find himself right back in the mix at 205.

6. Forrest Griffin – He may be down two loses right now but this guy has proven his worth as a top MMA fighter. He will take any fight and he will give it everything he has. Unfortunately, he took fights against superior strikers and paid the price. I think Griffin will get back on track against Tito Ortiz come November.

7. Luis Arthur Cane – Talk about a guy who flies under the radar. Cain’s striking has been lethal and the precision scary. He is not a guy to be taken lightly in this division. His next fight is going to be his toughest challenge by far and I expect Little Nog to give him just a little more than he can handle.

8. Little Nog – Here is a guy that should have been in the UFC 2 years ago. He has the potential to make some huge waves in both Zuffa’s 205 pound division and any and all top 10 ranking lists. I just wonder if he would reject a fight with his friend Machida if their paths were to cross.

9. Renato “Babalu” Sobral – Since leaving the UFC he is 5-1, his only loss coming to the number three ranked fighter on this list. I expect Babalu to get back to his winning ways sooner rather than later. Consistency has always been the big issue but few can doubt the skill level of Sobral, skill enough to keep him in my top 10.

10. Rich Franklin – This is another process of elimination pick. I honestly think Franklin is looking at three losses in a row but the judges of the Franklin/Silva fight didn’t see it my way. No matter how you cut it, Franklin is a contender. He really needs to get himself some strait up LHW fights so that he can start establishing himself in this division as apposed to the 205 lbs. gatekeeper for Anderson Silva.

Middleweight Rankings (October 2009)

No division is more obviously dominated than the 185 lbs division in MMA. Fedor may have sit atop the big boys but Anderson Silva has been more active against the top crop of talent in his division and dominant when moving up in weight. The most interesting thing about the middleweight division has been the development of fighters outside the UFC over the last few years, despite Zuffa and company scooping a number of those fighters up. No matter how you cut it, this division is crowded and might represent the most difficult division to sort out after its king is addressed.

1. Anderson Silva – Was there ever really a question about who would be atop this list? Few athletes have ever dominated their field like Silva has dominated mixed martial artists that weigh in at 185 pounds. He has torn through some of the best MMA fighters in the world in his last 10 fights in the UFC and he has lost only one round. After putting away Forrest Griffin, its hard to imagine who can give him trouble.

2. Vitor Belfort – This is where I start to differ from many MMA fans and analysts. Vitor is only three fights into his return but they have been three relatively big fights, particularly his last two. It is also important to note that he has finished two top competitors this year, one of which went down in just 37 seconds. Also, the top three other contenders in the UFC are also riding three fight win streaks and one could easily argue that Vitor’s is the most impressive. I am not sure what that means for his chances against the likes of Anderson Silva, but I for one think that qualifies him as the number one contender.

3. Dan Henderson – Henderson edges Marquardt on my list not because I think he is a better fighter but because his wins are of a higher quality as of late. Henderson showed the world that he was still a few steps ahead of Michael Bisping and that he is ready for a rematch. I, for one, think Henderson vs Marquardt is a must at this point. Henderson is a long time great and should be near the top of this list for some time.

4. Nate Marquardt – The Nate Marquardt we have seen as of late was not the same fighter we say against Anderson Silva. He is more confidant, more capable, and much more explosive. He suffers so much from a few rules violations that broke up a solid win streak but he is back on track to a title shot.

5. Jorge Santiago – Santiago is riding a nine fight wining streak but don’t be fooled by the fact that he is not in the UFC, his resume is legit. I think he is getting forgotten about by a few too many fighter lists. Santiago has given us no reason to think he could not compete in the biggest organization in MMA and no reason to believe he should not be ranked among their best.

6. Demian Maia – This guy is nothing short of a wizard when it comes to submissions. His skill on the ground is second to none but he got brought back down to earth when he fought a bigger, stronger, more well rounded Marquardt. The result was being turned into a lawn dart that landed him at number 7 on my list.

7. Yoshihiro Akiyama – I tend to think he won’t last long in this division while under Zuffa contract. He is a bit small and had all he could handle with Belcher. The guys ahead of him on this list are a good bit ahead of him in my book.

8. Michael Bisping – Bisping was made to look a bit foolish by Dan Henderson but to be perfectly honest there is no shame in that. Henderson is a bad bad dude. I think Bisping has a chance to develop into quite the fighter but he needs time to grow. Dennis Kang is a much more reasonable test than Henderson was.

9. Jake Shields– It is hard to rank a fighter when they shift from one division to the other. Shields is making a move up, which makes it even harder but he has a nack for proving his doubters wrong. He will have the chance to be the Strikeforce MW champion and to do it on one of the biggest non-UFC cards of the year, a feet that could move up the ranks a bit.

10. Chael Sonnan – Sonnan gets another huge win over a hot UFC fighter. He is one of the most underrated fighters in the world right now and could make it a long day for just about anyone. Okami was at one time considered the number two MW in the world but Sonnan put his stamp on the division by eliminating him from contention and making the matchmaking of Zuffa brass look good.

A quick note: I will go on record right now saying that if/when Goran Reljic returns to the UFC he is going to be a MAJOR contender in this division. I have not been excited for a return like I am his in quite sometime.

Welterweight Rankings (October 2009)

Georges St. Pierre proves again that the cream seems to be rising to the top in MMA. No fighter may be as far ahead of the competition as GSP currently is, dispatching his four biggest challengers under Zuffa contract in his last four fights and making it look relatively easy. While few think there are a lot of stiff challenges awaiting Mr. GSP, the WW is still a tight one. Much like middleweight, the division has a clear cut champion and then a lot of contenders a few steps behind.

1. Georges St. Pierre – It is hard to complain about GSP and it is even harder to find faults in him. He is a world-class athlete, ambassador for the sport, and a smart business man when it comes to his career. Not too keen to jump up in weight, GSP knows that being the most dominant WW of all time is his first priority and superfights should not be taken lightly.

2. Jon Fitch – Fitch may have been beat up for 25 minutes against GSP but he showed grit in that fight that few fighters can claim. On top of that he appears to have gotten over the loss and continued to improve his game. I have this feeling that Fitch is going to be champion one of these days but I fear GSP might have to move on or slip up before it can really happen.

3. Thiago Alvez – Alvez didn’t have as much to offer GSP as many had hoped but he hung in there. This is a really dangerous fighter with tons of potential in the future. Fitch and Alvez will likely have to meet again one day and I think that is a whole new, completely different fight now.

4. Mike Swick – Swick has been fairly fortunate with his match-ups and that might continue until he gets a title shot. I don't buy the hype but as long as he keeps winning I can't deny him the spot.

5. Josh Koscheck – I can’t decide if I love or hate Kos. He rubs me the wrong way sometimes but his talent and potential are fascinating to me. He also seems to genuinely love the ride he is on, we should all be so lucky. I think head to head I would count him the 4^th or 5^th best WW in the world, which is why I am willing to overlook spotty year or two and put him in the middle of the pack.

6. Dan Hardy – I am not a big Dan Hardy fan and I am not even sure I believe he is a true top 10 fighter but I am at least listening now. He gets counted out of about every fight he is in and he keeps coming up with the wins. He is now one more underdog win away from the ultimate mismatch.

7. Jay Hieron – I know his wins are of questionable quality but the guy is riding a solid win streak. There is no way in hell he should be out of the top ten, especially if you remove Shields from the equation. I for one look forward to him getting stiffer competition in the future but a move to the UFC might be the only way to make that happen.

8. Paul Daley – Daley made me a believer with his win over Kampmann. The stand-up explosiveness he posses might not really be matched in the division. Another great pick-up for the most powerful company in MMA, Daley should prove a stiff challenge to almost anyone in the division.

9. Martin Kampmann – Inconsistency has riddled Kampmann in his UFC run, despite what weight class he has fought at. As soon as people start to recognize him as a serious contender he drops a fight quickly. That said, he is still a well rounded fighter with a lot of room to grow. Kampmann is at a crossroads that could decide weather he is a middle of the road journeyman or a legit contender.

10. Carlos Condit – There is something to be said for losing in an entertaining fashion. Condit ran the show in the WEC before being matched up with Kampmann. After a match of the year candidate fight he edged out a decision over Jake Ellenberger to gain some momentum back. Condit now realizes that the UFC is not the WEC and he has to develop more skils if he is going to compete.

Lightweight Rankings (October 2009)

The lightweight division has more top ranked fighters outside of the UFC than any other division in the big five, but Dana White and company still have the top dog. The next few months hold a lot for the 155 pound division and many wonder what could possibly be next for BJ Penn if he gets past Diego Sanchez.

1. BJ Penn – Say what you will about BJ, his motivation, his actions in or out of the ring, and his seemingly constant desire to be physically bigger than he is, this is the best 155 pounder in the world. He isn’t just good, he is great and he has proven it by dispatching anyone in his weight class he steps in the cage with. After Sanchez it is tough to tell what is next for Penn but a win would further separate him from the pack.

2. Shinya Aoki – Aoki avenged his loss to Joachim Hansen and won the rubber match between the two, firmly planting him near the top of this list. It is a shame that he and Penn are not in the same organization because a second match between the two at this point in their careers is nothing short of a superfight for the lightweight division.

3. Eddie Alvarez – Alvarez is one of the hottest 155 pound prospects right now, looking more impressive by the day. If the UFC is serious about expanding to Latin markets in the future, this might be a huge ticket for them; however, Alvarez seems to be doing just fine without a Zuffa contract.

4. Gray Maynard – A drastically underrated fighter in my opinion, Maynard has literally bullied almost every fighter in his way. It is hard to imagine someone he doesn’t match up well against, but he seems to be a few wins away from a title shot for reasons unknown to me. Until someone proves me wrong, I am going to continue to believe he is a top contender.

5. Diego Sanchez – Sanchez has clearly been fast-tracked to a title shot with Penn because of his marketability, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve the shot. He has four strait wins, two of which are quality wins in the UFC lightweight division. When I think about Sanchez fighting the non-UFC fighters on this list, I like his chances of getting Ws over almost all of them.

6. Tatsuya Kawajiri – considered the top contender for the Dream LW title, Kawajiri definitely deserves to be in the top 10 but I tend to think he is rated kind of high on most lists, including my own. Inconsistency seems to be an issue and to go much higher he is going to need to put on more impressive performances.

7. Kenny Florian – It is hard to dispute that he deserved his title shot against BJ Penn. Before that fight, I might have had him number two on this list but Florian demonstrated that he was not really in BJ Penn’s league physically or mentally. A poor game plan and inability to exert any technical superiority was a big reality check for Florian. He now has the unenviable task of facing a guy that would make any fighter miserable, Clay Guida.

8. Franky Edgar – His only loss comes at the hands of the Bully and he recently scored the biggest win of his career against the former monster champion, Sean Sherk. Edgar is ready for the big time and he is ready to fight top flight competition. Unfortunately he is at least number three in line right now and the guy waiting already beat him.

9. Gilbert Melendez – Sure he is not the undisputed Strikeforce champion and he is still waiting to avenge a loss, but few fighters at this weight have been as impressive as he has over the past few years. He gets the nine spot from me because he has been showing improvement, demonstrating that he has learned from mistakes and losses.

10. Joachim Hansen – A lot of fans and pundits expected deep down to see Hansen get beat quickly by Aoki in their rubber match. Hansen may have been a bit outclassed but he proved he was as tough as anyone at this weight. This is truly a crossroads for this young man in his career. How will he bounce back from losing the biggest fight of his career.

UFC 104 Thoughts

No card in recent memory has stirred up the ire of MMA and general sports fans like UFC 104. Accusations of fight fixing, robbery, and just plain old bad judging have riddled the net since Machida was announced as the retaining Light-Heavyweight Champion. Shogun looked as good as he has ever looked and Machida looked as bad as we have ever seen him but at the end of the day literally nothing was settled. Debates rage on in message boards and offices alike, but this was not a one fight show. The card as a whole was filled with talent and storylines, enough to keep us busy, at least until November 7^th.

Anthony Johnson’s Weighty Decision

Anthony Johnson came in to the weigh-ins 6 pounds over weight, admitting that he was physically unable to lose any more weight. It is not that he did all he could and was close or that he came within 6 pounds but forgot the day of the weigh-ins; he was way overweight and had no room to work. Fortunately for him, his opponent had a similar problem, making their fight little more than an exhibition contest. Johnson did what everyone expected and ran through Yoshida but now the question now turns to weather or not he should move up in weight. Early reports say he is not remotely interested in the move, but only time will tell what his body will say. If he keeps having problems cutting to legal weight, he will start having problems being a professional fighter. For now, he is moving his way up in a division that needs contenders so if he can make the weight regularly, he might stumble into a title shot with a smaller champion.

Joe Stevenson Gets on Track

Joe Daddy has been a fairly popular fighter since graduating from The Ultimate Fighter but things haven’t always gone his way. He had a string of bad luck meeting top level fighters that were able to outclass him at almost every turn and looked to be far from a legit contender. Stevenson looks like he is back on track though with a few wins under his belt and a noticeably improving, well rounded game. As for Fisher, perhaps the move down in weight is what the doctor ordered. He is a talented fighter but has constantly proven he that he has difficulty with next level competition.

Cain Velasquez is the Real Deal

I will be the first to agree that Ben Rothwell had a little left in him when the fight was stopped, but the pattern of that fight was not going to change. Velasquez looked sharp in all aspects of his game. His stand-up is quick and precise, his takedowns are effective, and his ground control seems virtually impossible to overcome. Every time I think we are going to see him challenged he comes out and looks more impressive than he did before, rendering a top level title contender the only logical next step.

Okami Finally Falls

It was almost like it was a matter of time. If a fighter is kept from a title shot long enough and suffers enough setbacks, matchmaking can manifest its own destiny and that is just what happened here. Sure, maybe Okami was never a threat to Anderson Silva’s title but he was at least worthy of consideration in the eyes of everyone but Zuffa brass. He falls back down the ranks and we all saw it. I have to feel a touch bad for him but I am not surprised it eventually happened.

The Big Questions

Who won? Will there be a rematch immediately? These are the two questions everyone is asking right now. The answer to the first question is Machida. The only three people who’s opinion mattered declared it so. I for one think the fight was very close and it was a very good fight. Shogun looked great but he didn’t run away with the show or anything. I think there are three things contributing to this muddled situation. 1) Shogun was given no chance by most pundits to win this fight. When he came out with a great gameplan, looking sharp, it caught a lot of people off guard. I think some people are giving Shogun a touch more credit than he deserves for his actual performance in those 25 minutes and comparing what he did to what they thought he would do. 2) If anyone can get away with moving backwards and not being the aggressor without losing points its Machida. He has done it in every UFC fight he has been in for some time and it has proven effective. Judges know his style and likely didn’t take the “aggression” of Shogun into much account. 3) Finally, I am of the opinion that judges get forumal’s in their heads before a fight. If a ground fighter meets a stand-up fighter and they stand the whole time, they are going to think the stand-up fighter is controlling the pace of the fight. I think they saw a technically sound stand-up fight that went the distance and saw the perfect Machida foruma. It doesn’t mean I think they were right or wrong but all anyone seems to want to know is how the judges could come to that decision. Of course they really don’t want to know how, they just want to bitch about the decision but you get the idea. I think this is a great opportunity for MMA professionals at all levels to take a look at the judging in MMA and actually do something about it. What’s done is done and as a Machida fan I know that is easy for me to say, but it is time for us to learn and make steps to improve our sport.

I got caught in the mountain-riddled county of Peyongchang while I was waiting for the winds to be right to paraglide last weekend so I didn’t get to finish my rankings before the ppv. They are almost complete so after a little tweaking they will be up this week hopefully. It is just two weeks before MMA takes off on a 3 week blitz of action so check back.

Quinton "Hollywood" Jackson

When I heard that Rampage was going to be in the new A-Team movie I was mad. Not because I thought it would affect UFC 106 or any other event for that matter but because I thought it was a stupid choice. Look, Rampage is funny, he is talented, and he is charismatic but I am not convinced that any of those things are going to translate well to the big screen. That was nothing compared to how upset I was when I found out that Rampage would first postpone his bout with Rashad Evans and then strait up retire for the part. I am not saying Rampage is scared, far be it for me to accuse him of that, but it does seem to be a fight the MMA world is ready for and Rampage seems to rank it fairly low on his priority list. There are three big ramifications to this decision.

First of all, I think the UFC has got to lose a little respect for Rampage. Zuffa has to be scratching its collective head. Is this the same Rampage Jackson that they bailed out of jail and supported with a legal team when he got hopped up on energy drinks and took his monster truck bahaing in Los Vegas or Los Angeles or one of those big Loses? They stuck their neck out for him and his big mess fell by the wayside. You think that would have happened if it were a major figure in a more popularly accepted sport? Answer: nope. Jackson turning down the first fight with Rashad is completely understandable but this fight was booked well in advance and was given an entire season of The Ultimate Fighter to lube up the hype machine. Rampage pushing the fight back and then pulling out of the UFC at this point at this point doesn’t even allow the UFC to replace him. It leaves Rashad hanging, it leaves the UFC hanging, it made Dana and Joe Silva scramble to reassemble cards at the tail end of the year, and it left TUF season 10 with no pay off. Business is business and Rampmage has to feed himself and his family but from where I sit it seems like one would want to pay back the company that saved your ass, even if it meant passing on a perfect nitch movie role.

This will extend beyond Rampage and UFC 106. Don’t expect coaches to start seasons of TUF with verbal agreements to fight anymore. The UFC took Rampage’s word (as well as Rashad’s) that he would fight after the season was done and then booked an entire event around Jackson fighting in his home town. I expect verbal agreements are going to be followed very closely with signed contracts from here on out. The UFC has gotten into the business of planning months in advance lately, which requires them to switch things up a lot before making official announcements. This really only affects the dorks like myself who are interested in rumored fights 5 months before they happen but Rampage’s actions will likely affect fighter contracts. If fighters are interested in taking movie deals or being flexible about their fights, they may have the UFC brass to contend with. Keep an eye on the way fight contracts play out as a result of this.

Let me be clear, I don’t think this is the last time we have seen Rampage in a UFC cage. No one I have talked to really believes that. At the end of the day I just think it is a bad idea. Sure, Rampage wants to make his own star and this will likely make his fights more lucrative in the future, but the UFC is a business that makes its money on its brand. Certain fighters will always make more for the company than others but at the end of the day its UFC and then a number. Its brand first, sport second, fighter third. While Rampage will get plenty of publicity for the move and the roll itself, I tend to think Rampage would have been better off overall if he simply took this fight and kept being a top notch mixed martial artist. This was essentially a number one contenders fight, especially for Jackson if he won. It kind of makes the sport look silly if you think about it. Would Kobe Bryant skip a round of the playoffs to make a movie? What about Adrian Peterson, Alex Rodriguez, or Sidney Crosby? Hell do you think they would miss a regular season game for a movie roll? If MMA wants to be taken seriously by popular sports culture, it has to be taken seriously by its own athletes. Rampage is one of our biggest stars and he doesn’t care enough about the sport to take a fight he agreed to and spent time building? The same can be said for Mr. Le who is basically holding the Strikeforce MW title hostage while he makes movies that no one will ever watch. This is why MMA is still seen by many as a trend. If you want to go do some acting go do it when you take a break from the sport for a bit. Don’t do it when you should be in the limelight, competing at the top levels. The majority of the sports top athletes take MMA very seriously and I wish cases like Jackson and Le didn’t make MMA look like a stepping stone to “real careers.”

*steps off soap box*

Another Return

As anyone who has stumbled across this blog knows, I have recently moved to Korea and the move was a bit taxing on my time. The free time I have had has usually gone to sleep, catching up with friends, or adjusting to living on the other side of the world. I thought I would return with a little bit of a summary of how MMA is covered here. There are entirely too many stories to cover so my promise to myself (as I am the only one who frequents this blog) is to get a top 10 ranking out for the major divisions before UFC 104 as well as my thoughts on the approaching event and the Rampage/Dana/Rashad/TUF 10 saga. I likely wont keep the promise but I am going to give it a good go, now onto MMA in Korea.

MMA is a bit more mainstream here, as one might have guessed. For example, I was flipping through some cannels that I didn’t understand and I came across some sort of game show that hurt my brain. People were taking turns playing with a cat and were totally stoked on it. Then, out of nowhere, a picture of Fedor came up with some Korean text beside it. I have wished I could read Korean since I have been here but not once more than that moment. There was just a big grinning Fedor smiling at me while people played with cat.

Akyama can be found on a number of advertising billboards, including my personal favorite of him in a suit and tie eating some food while leaning on a dishwasher, two poses.

UFC events are free on regular cable, as are DREAM events. They are carried on different channels, which caused me to miss half of the last DREAM card due to confusion. Before UFC events they do an hour long countdown, talk show that is what a MMA countdown show would look like if ESPN did it.

They are clearly still hung up on Pride fighers here. For the UFC 103 countdown show Cro Cop dominated the coverage, taking at least 50% of the airtime. The other three headlining fighters split the difference between themselves. I didn’t understand what they were saying so that is only based on who was actually on the TV.

This has nothing to do with Korean culture but most of my coworkers here are really into MMA, which means I actually have people to talk to about the events. This is just plain ol’ exciting.

Be back shortly folks… be back shortly.

UFC 102 Thoughts

Better late than never but as usual my move to Korea has put me in high demand in more physical locations than one… at once. UFC 102 was not really the kind of event that you just brush under the rug and ignore. Criticized by many as an event with no immediate title implications and hinging on a main event made of living legends, the pre-event buzz was mixed. It is this nearsightedness that I have taken umbrage with in the past. This event had two fights with very real title implications, one fight that is just one step outside the title picture, and two fights relevant to the future of their respective divisions and marketable fighters. To boot, we got to see a top blue-chip prospect at heavyweight in a record-breaking performance. There wasn’t one fight on the main card that I was completely confident in picking. Every fight was well constructed, even if some of them ended in one-sidedness. In short, this was a true MMA fan’s card. It was not going to draw in the huge buy rates and even the gate was somewhat weak (something we could attribute to a number of factors), but this card had hardcore MMA fans all a-buzz. Personally, the card delivered a worth-while show and then some.

Brandon Vera continues to morph

I say morph because I am still torn as to weather or not he is improving. Clearly he is at a better weight class for him and he is taking a more technical approach to his fights. However, this fight was anything but exciting and it left sort of a sour taste in my mouth regarding Vera. The Truth needs to find a balance between the flashy charismatic fighter that claimed he was going to win a belt in two divisions and the more reserved fighter concerned with self-improvement. The latter is clearly preferable if he wants to be a champion, but he needs to put his skill to use if he is going to return to the good graces of the UFC hype machine. I am all about Matt Hammill being his next opponent as that fight would present Vera with a whole new set of obstacles and both fighters are at about the same place within the division as far as I am concerned.

Nate Marquardt is Nate Bad-Assquardt

I for one had trouble imagining Maia getting Marquardt down, like he has so many others, and tapping him. “The Great” is a huge middleweight and has been known to push that weight around in the cage. I just thought Maia would be a little too one dimensional to give him much trouble. I did not expect Maia to be turned into a lawn-dart inside 30 seconds of the first round. Marquardt looked great in this fight but we really didn’t learn anything about how he could technically stand up to the Maia game-plan or how Maia’s technique would stand up to Marquardt’s power and well-roundedness. It looks like Nate Marquardt is going to meet Dan Henderson next for a title shot. It also looks like there is a different Silva making matches at MW as Anderson has scoffed at the idea of a rematch with either and suggested that they fight each other first. I actually tend to agree. If we were talking about any other champion I would say give one of them a shot now, but Silva is interested in being active in two or three divisions and has the talent to do just that. He has also already destroyed both fighters, yes I said destroyed. Marquardt vs Henderson is a fight I am very much into and somewhat conflicted on right now, not something I would have said a month ago.

Jake Rosholt Finally Impresses

I was impressed with Jake Rosholt for the first time on Saturday. Up to that point he had been a great wrestler that was just way way too green for me to give much thought to. At UFC 102 Rosholt demonstrated his chin, improved stand up, and a greatly improved as well as more diversified ground game. That is a lot against a tough kid like Chris Leban, who despite being a perennial middle of the road fighter, is always a threat. I can see Leban taking one, maybe two more steps in his game and competing against some stiffer competition but I would be floored if he ever became a real title contender. I will keep my feelings for Rosholt in check and say pretty much the same thing. The guy has a ton of potential but I will reserve higher accolades for when I see even more improvement.

Todd Duffee Turns Heads

There isn’t a lot to say about Todd Duffee and his performance at UFC 102. We only got to see seven seconds of him in the cage and really only got exposed to one punch and some ground-n-pound. A record breaking knockout is one of the best ways to turn heads in the UFC so there is no doubt we will see him against stiffer competition next time around. At this point all we can do is wait for his next performance and hope we get a little more time to see what this kid is all about.

Thiago Silva Gets Back on Track

Man I like this guy. I think Thiago Silva looked as good or better in this fight than he has ever looked in the past. He was more focused and more controlled. I am not talking about that fake kind of focused where he walked around mean mugging. That look may return but compared to what we saw at 102, those mean mugs and struts were compensation for eagerness. This was a much more controlled and more tactical Thiago Silva and it showed in his most impressive win to date. He even demonstrated some, but not too much, of ground prowess that we have heard so much about. He is all about a rematch with Machida and while I really like what I saw last Saturday, I am in no way, shape or form convinced that fight would go any differently… at least not right now. I will be very interested to see what they line up for Thiago Silva next. Forrest Griffin makes sense, as does a welcoming match for Little Nog or the loser of Machida/Shogun. Any way you cut it, I think Thiago is positioning himself nicely near the top of that division and this win is going to invite tough tests in the future.

Is The Old Big Nog Back?

I think the answer is no, only because one ill prepared fight does not make a rut. Big Nog looked fairly good before the Frank Mir fight and we all know the count on that. This fight came down to two things and they both belong to Big Nog: his hips and his chin. Minatao’s chin is made of solid rock and nothing Randy did was going to change that. On the ground, they had their backs and forths but Nog’s hips were too strong and too technically driven to stay on bottom long or to be bucked easily. We saw a top-notch performance from The Natural. We just literally saw who was the better fighter. If both guys come in at 100% I think Nog wins seven out of ten. Three out of ten fights get won on Randy taking it to that other level he sometimes calls upon. It is the difference between a truly great HW and a truly great big LHW. I like Big Nog’s chances against almost anyone in the division. I think he will find serious match-up problems against Brock or Carwin, but either fight could turn into a real battle that Nog is more than capable of winning. As a long time Nog fan it was good to see him back in championship form.

Randy’s Return to 205

This news has been breaking since UFC 102 ended and should come as no surprise to anyone who saw the fight. I have already pointed out the problem with Randy fighting at HW and it looks like his camp has seen it too. Hey could continue to face size problems unless he puts on about 20 pounds of muscle. There are a ton of big money fights at LHW for the Natural but he will trade his size disadvantage for a speed disadvantage. The top LHWs in the UFC (Machida, Shogun, Rashad, Rampage, T. Silva, A. Silva)* all have lightening fast hands and most of them are more technical and accurate than anyone Randy had success against at 205 in the past. He needs to be handled correctly because more loses could do a lot of damage to his current marketability. He needs a top-notch win or two to get back on track. I am still down with Randy Couture vs Anderson Silva at HW, though I doubt it will happen now. However, if Rampage actually pulls out of his fight with Rashad, I can see them replacing him with The Natural as well, demonstrating how diverse a fighter Couture is from a booking standpoint. No matter what is next, Randy Couture is still a few years from retirement so we have plenty more dream matches to come; you know he won’t lose them all.

*I did not include Forrest Griffin here because of his relationship with Randy Couture and the assumption that they would not fight each other.

Fedor vs. Rogers: A Carefully Planned Risk

The owners and operators of Strikeforce must be absolutely terrified as much as they are absolutely excited. They signed the golden goose but you can’t just put him on your mantle if you want to make money. Fedor has to fight and fight he will. Fedor is to Strikeforce what EliteXC tried to make Kimbo. Word is that Strikeforce has invested a lot in Fedor and lets face facts, Fedor is only worth as much as his unbeatable mystique to the average fan. Diehard MMA fans will be there no matter what, Fedor or not. However, if you want to survive in this business you need more than the MMA faithful. Stikeforce needs a broader fan-base. The legend of Fedor can bring that in, but only the LEGEND of Fedor. I guess what I am trying to say is Strikeforce is in a world of trouble if Fedor loses. This is probably their motivation for putting Fedor in the cage (wow, Fedor is going to be in a cage) with the greenest heavyweight in their stable, Brett Rogers. While Rogers is the greenest of the legit Heavyweights to match with Fedor, he is also one of the most popular to an American audience, with his exciting knockouts and recent victory over The Pitbull Arlovski. A few posts back I argued with myself a bit about what would be the best choice here and came to no conclusions but with the fight now staring us all in the face I have to say, this is starting to look like the best possible scenario for Strikeforce and MMA.

Brett Rogers is the lowest risk and potentially highest reward opponent for Fedor at this juncture. He is one-dimensional and likely presents less technical problems for Fedor than any other fighter. Fedor will be heavily favored in this fight. That is not to say that Rogers should be counted out and the possibility of Fedor losing had to be considered by the powers that be. Rogers actually might pose a slightly greater threat than some of the other fighters (this is my opinion) because he is so raw but constantly improving, making him somewhat less predictable. He is tough as nails and hungry to win. He fights for his family and that makes him dangerous. Fedor’s big swinging punches better land before Rogers’ does because I don’t like anyone’s chin against a few shots from Grim. If the Emperor is dethroned in this most unceremonial of fashions, Strikeforce and company may have more to gain from Rogers winning than Werdum or Overeem. Rogers will be identified as a Strikeforce guy (no one will remember his EliteXC work in a year or so) so they can claim him as the first pure Strikeforce fighter. Additionally, he will inherit at least some of Fedor’s unbeatable aura given that he is in fact unbeaten and would have pulled two of the biggest upsets in MMA history in a row. Finally, Brett Rogers can easily recover from a loss to Fedor. The MMA world will just shake its collective head and say he wasn’t ready, but they won’t lose interest in the young prospect. We can still watch him grow and become a more complete and capable fighter, climbing his way back to a rematch. This benefit of the doubt would likely not be given to Werdum or Overeem and would be less likely given to Rogers if he was built up a little more.

Rogers presents a reasonable (in fact interest) challenge for Fedor and offers less of a loss in all possible scenarios. I, for one, just hope this fight lasts a few rounds. I would like to see Rogers put on a good showing and at least hang in there. While I think an upset is well within the realm of possibilities, I don’t want to see Fedor lose at this point in time. I have spoken of the Fedor mythos before. The Last Emperor’s legacy is not just important to Strikeforce, it is important to MMA.

UFC 102 Preview

On August 28^th, 2009 two living legends of a mixed martial arts will finally cross paths. The fight will be the culmination (to this point) of two epic careers belonging to two of the sports most beloved fighters. These represent two different archetypes of what MMA has been over the last 10 – 15 years. One is an American wrestler who has been at the top of the leading state side MMA organization and the other is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace who climbed to the panicle of Japanese MMA. While the fight is not for a title or even a title shot, the significance is not lost on the mixed martial arts world. The card also features a number of fantastic fights that will compliment the exceptional main event.

Brandon Vera vs Krizysztof Soszynski

This fight was originally suppose to include Matt Hammill, but the UFC favorite new replacement guy stepped in again to take on Vera when “The Hammer” got injured. I was a little skeptical of Soszynski when he was on The Ultimate Fighter because I couldn’t figure out what all the hype was about. Fortunately, he turned things around once he got regular UFC fights and looked really impressive in his last few outings. Brandon Vera has been up and down as of late, with more down than up. Coming off of a relatively impressive win against an unimpressive opponent, Vera will look to build some momentum but that will be no easy task. The Truth had a lot of trouble with Keith Jardine’s awkward stand up style and Soszynski could present the same problem. While we hear so much about Vera’s ground game, we are yet to see it and know he will be facing someone who can hold his own once the fight hits the floor. Soszynski is improving with every outing and it is tough to tell where he will be at a true disadvantage, but Vera’s stand-up is the most likely option. The winner of this will likely secure a solid opponent up the 205 ladder and become that much more relevant in the title hunt.

Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt

I don’t know why I like this fight so much but I do. Rosholt vs Leben will represent a classic style clash between the striker and the wrestler. I have been less than impressed with the blue-chip Rosholt to this point. He is clearly talented but I am not sure he is ready for this level. Rosholt’s stand-up is porous and he leaves himself open to submissions on the ground. I suspect Leben will be able to keep it on the feet and hit Rosholt almost at will. If Rosholt can get this fight to the ground, he should be able to do some damage and control Leben there. Both of these fighters have proven to have concrete chins, meaning this fight will likely not be too quick, regardless of who controls the location of the fight. If Rosholt has worked enough on the other (not wrestling) aspects of his game, this could be a contender for fight of the night.

Demian Maia vs Nate Marquardt

Holy Crap…. I am excited for this fight. Maia is nothing short of wizard like on the ground and every time we think he is going to really be tested, he demonstrates that he is actually getting better at implementing his BJJ into MMA. Marquardt has looked almost unstoppable since he lost to Silva; I don’t even have to address his loss to Leites. I think he is one of the top 185 pounders in the world, easy. I also think he presents a real problem for Maia who had some issues with the scrappy McDonald. Marquardt should have better wrestling and better BJJ than McDonald presented Maia with. He should also have more power and dangerous stand-up. One cannot ever count out Maia’s ability to submit an opponent though. One mistake and Maia takes your arm home or you lose oxygen to your brain. At the end of the day, no one really knows the limits of Maia so it would be hard to pick the winner even if I was in the business of picking winners. I like the match-up regardless. We are going to find out what Maia is made of and get a little closer to figuring out what is next for Anderson Silva.

Thiago Silva vs Keith Jardine

This is one of those fights that I hate to know someone will lose. I have really grown to respect Keith Jardine through his last hand full of fights. He is a tough guy and has proven he won’t back down from anyone. Thiago Silva on the other hand has been a fighter I have been behind for a long time. I like his style and his attitude. He is very confident in himself and his ability. Machida’s style was tailor made to finish Thiago. However, Silva’s style may be tailor made to give Jardine headaches. Jardine has had problems with aggressive fighters and I expect Silva to push the pace in this fight Both fighters love to stand and bang so I doubt we are going to see much of either fighters ground game unless it is ground-and-pound. I think there are a lot of contender’s for fight of the night and if I didn’t suspect that this would end in the first (maybe second) I would pick it hands down. If they go the distance, watch out for a serious brawl.

Randy Couture vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

What can you say about this fight? I covered its significance above but there seems to be a general feeling of fear in the MMA community that this fight will be lackadaisical. The more I think about this fight the less I fear that issue. I am actually quite convinced that this fight could steal the show if both guys enter in shape. Randy Couture is going to be hard to catch in a submission and hard to outstrike. Big Nog will be hard to knock out or put in a rough enough spot to get a stoppage. The style match-up and tendencies of each fighter might make for a really fun back and forth brawl. Both guys are smart enough to have a feeling out process but business savvy enough to start swinging before too long. While both fighters are considered long in the tooth, neither has really given us much reason to give up on them. Like the last fight, it is unfortunate that one of these athletes has to lose. Couture and Big Nog will likely be seen again but this fight is pretty close to a must win for both, making it as significant as virtually any main event this year.