Saturday, March 26, 2011

A Careful Examination of the Jon Jones Phenomenon

Some fighters come along and transcend the normal boundaries of MMA. Being a relatively young and still developing entity, this happens with more frequency than mainstream sports. These fighters’ success is great, earning them all the accolades expected of a great champion but it is their personality, their charisma, their “it” factor that allows them to enter into the mainstream sports consciousness. It is these qualities that require more attention within the sport because of their attention outside, in the world that will eventually either accept MMA or relegate it permanently to the periphery. These blue chip fighters make waves, they change the game; it is through these athletes that the sports grows in leaps and bounds or is set back.

As perhaps the most marketable fight in MMA history Brock Lesnar loses a bit of his steam Jon Jones picks up more than his fair share. Jones lit the fighting world on fire by defeating Shogun Rua for the light heavyweight title. Out if his meteoric rise and the aforementioned win that put the exclamation point on it come a number of storylines and talking points that could all warrant their own essay length commentary. Here I will discuss many of these issues in isolation with hopes that common threads will naturally weave them together. In Jones the casual fan sees a world-beater, the greatest of all time, an unstoppable force. My hope here is to complicate that perception to some degree from the standpoint of a long time fan of the sport while leaving the position of Jones, between the past of his rise and the uncertainty of his future, as simple as any fighter’s can be.

Shogun Rua in Context

As champion, Jon Jones is the main event so allow me to start with Shogun Rua. One cannot understand what winning the title from Shogun means unless they understand the history of Rua and what he has meant to MMA. Most fans, regardless of their interest in the sport, know that Shogun was at one time the young up-and-comer in Pride FC, that he once looked unstoppable. Few know that the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship is his first major title not because Pride shut its doors or because he choked in the big fights but because his close friend and training partner held the Pride title at his weight class. Shogun was in many circles considered the uncrowned champion. Despite not holding a title he was ranked by most MMA news outlets as the best 205 pound fighter in the world. What even fewer fans probably realize is how many fans detested the UFC’s U.S. monopoly of MMA, preferred Prides brand and identified with Shogun. Fans familiar with his career saw him as a representative antidote of all that was wrong with the business side of MMA. Shogun was the greatest light heavyweight alive yet he stood uncrowned, underappreciated, and virtually unknown to every yahoo at the bar who talked like they knew professional fighting. In short, there is a section of the MMA world that highly esteems Shogun Rua. It is not so much that these fans cannot get over his loss, but it is that this loss must be understood against the backdrop to which it exits. His loss upsets fans who waited years, through multiple knee surgeries as well as many personal and professional trials, to see him climb to the top and get the recognition he so rightfully deserves. By in large, these fans respect Jon Jones, but are left with a bitter taste in their mouth by the uncrowning of their champion, particularly in a short notice fight.

Did Shogun Rua Give Up?

One of the opinions coming out of UFC 128, one in which upsets and surprises me greatly, is the opinion that Shogun “gave up” as the fight went on. By this I obviously do not mean that he tapped out, which I think he may have intended to do at the end, but that he mentally quit and resided himself to losing to the challenger. This is nothing short of ignorance and blasphemy. As a friend of mine pointed out to me later, Shogun was a kamikaze at the end of that fight. He was constantly moving forward, scrambling to his feet, and engaging with Jones until he was knocked to his knees for the final time. One could argue, and I would, that it was this style of fighting that exacerbated his situation once it took a negative turn early in the fight. It is Shogun’s style that makes him so endeared to the fans, makes him exciting, and can ultimately be his demise. Despite the almost universal acclaim for Jon Jones’ performance, at least from fans with any degree of sense, it is this sort of insult to injury that makes the fallout of this fight hard for some fans to swallow in light of the reality of the fight as well as the career of Shogun Rua.

How Could Shogun Ever Beat That Guy?

My last point about Shogun leads into my first real point about Jones. The discussion following, even immediately, the final bell of UFC 128 was that of an invincible Jones and a drastically outmatched Shogun. At first glance I understand the confusion. Jones was bigger, stronger, and seemingly faster. Allow me to make three observations on variables that could change and in turn change the outcome if these two were to meet again. 1) Shogun appeared to be somewhere between the shape he was in against Mark Coleman (bad) and the shape he was in against Machida (great) with a heavy lean toward Machida. Don’t consider this an excuse or apology for Shogun because it is not, but that was not the quickest or the most dynamic Rua I have ever seen. His hand speed and reaction time are the two most dangerous part of Shogun’s game and it would be a mistake to discount this variable. 2) Perhaps I am getting closer to the cause of my first observation with this one; I am not sure Shogun ever recovered fully from the first takedown of the fight. In that series Shogun expended a great deal of energy trying to sweep under and get a hold of Jones’ knee before he got caught in the face on his way to a standing position. Jones likely could have gone in for the kill at that point but chose to remain patient and/or rest himself. Shogun was changed for the worse upon standing up. He was slower and seemed to have periods severe unbalance. This could have contributed to him seeming not in the best shape, though I maintain there were indications of my first point in the opening stages of the fight. 3) Shogun entered with a strategy that was sound but not flexible. Either that or he was too dazed to adapt. He did not have the focus about him to attempt the second knee bar from the standing position and was too weak to overcome the power and speed of Jones. However, he kept pushing forward and going for the knee all the same. While all three of these variables still originate with poor decision or performance on Shogun’s part or with impressive performance on Jones’ part, they are all variables that could change if the two were to square off again. This fight proved that Jon Jones was the better fighter on a single night and could give us some insight as to how a second fight might go, but do not confuse yourself into thinking that this fight has one outcome now matter how many times it is played out. Shogun Rua still has the tools to beat Jones, but obviously some things must go differently for him the next time around.

Is Jon Jones Invincible?

No. Does anyone remember Brock Lesnar? It wasn’t all that long ago that the same sorts of conversations were popping up about the former professional wrestler turned MMA superstar. Fans and pundits cited his size and athleticism while dismissing his lack of experience and his technical drawbacks. Sure enough Cain Velasquez came along and showed just how beatable Lesnar was. Before I continue allow me to clarify that I think Jon Jones is better at 205 pounds than Brock is at 265. However, the premise remains the same. Jones is a super athletic wrestler with a size advantage over any opponent at his weight. His learning curve has the illusion of invisibility because of his physical and everyone’s eager to jump on him as the greatest of all time stemming from his marketability to be discussed later. Like Lesnar was exposed, there is still a great chance that Jones will be exposed too. People in the know admit that not only was Jones beginning to tire, a problem I foresee him having if he stays at light heavyweight, but he was also slipping punches the wrong way, avoiding contact not because of his solid technique but because of Shogun’s lack of hand speed at that point in the fight. The light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions offer up a ton of challenges, especially if he does have to move up in weight class where there is no shortage of wrestlers that will not be pushed around and out-powered.

Jon Jones vs Anderson Silva

Has everyone taken leave of their senses? Jon Jones has beaten two legitimate light heavyweights at this point in his career and one of them, Ryan Bader, is clearly not ready to be counted among the upper echelon in the division. There is a plethora of fighters that could give Jones trouble at 205 pounds. Machida, Rampage, T. Silva (if he can pass a drug test), and Rashad all immediately come to mind as fighters with different skill sets to challenge Jones. Even Forrest and Couture present interesting challenges based on their toughness, game planning, and stamina. This fantasy match making just seems quite ridiculous to me, especially considering the fact that many seem to be giving up on the other “dream fight’ that probably shouldn’t happen, but which is still drastically more deserving of consideration than this. The line of reasoning that brings about conversations such as this is so indicative of how fickle MMA fans can be. Jon Jones is a great young talent but to say that Anderson Silva is “the only challenger left” doesn’t even compute on a fantasy level. I am not even digging deep into the roster or making really intricate justifications for why someone might present an interesting challenge to Jones. I am simply saying there are a lot of really good fighters remaining in one of the most highly competitive divisions in the sport. This returns me to an overarching premise here; we should keep the Jon Jones hype in perspective and avoid crowning him the greatest of all time just yet.

What Makes Jones So Good and So Popular? Is it Good for MMA?

Jon Jones’ rise to the top tier of MMA is undeniable but the story of his rise is somewhat hard to swallow. A top-level athlete, Jones has only been training for about three years in the sport. Needless to say, one would assume that a champion would have more than three years of training behind him. Jones represents a new trend in the sport in almost every way. He is an example of what a truly gifted athlete can do in MMA. By gifted athlete I mean truly elite, the kind of athlete that one finds getting drafted in the first round to the NFL or NBA, culturally engrained sports. MMA has become a logical step for top college wrestling talent but even many of those athletes have historically found other outlets to compete or given up on physical competition all together, not presuming that they have a “next level” other than the Olympics. MMA is slowly but surely engraining itself as that next step, but more importantly it is becoming a career goal for athletes at a younger and younger age. Jones may have only been training for 3 years but he has been training at fairly high levels for most of that and his wrestling background is anything but infantile. Given the fact that he is only 23, he is spending some of his most formidable years deeply entrenched in MMA training. Imagine what an athlete such as this would look like if they were training boxing and BJJ from young ages as well as wrestling in school. This is what the sport has to look forward to. Physically Jones represents the next half step towards a new breed and new prototype of fighter that will certainly emerge as the sport continues to grow.

As far popularity is concerned Jones is pretty easy to like. What makes him likable for many makes him hatable to others. In a recent conversation fellow MMA enthusiast called Jon Jones the Tim Tebow of MMA. The comparison is a good one. A well known devout Christian that wins despite all odds and seems to be mentally and physically a level above his competition, Jones is either the prototypical “good guy” or he just rubs you the wrong way. He is also a marketing dream. He fits the qualifications for an American athlete and bears none of the stereotypes too often and unfairly associated with young black athletes. And make no mistake; him being American has a lot to do with this as well. Look at the top pound for pound fighters in recent memory. Americans have really only been able to break the top five to this point, giving way to Canada, Brazil, and Russia. Jones presents hope for America to return to its place of glory in the MMA ranks. Jones looks the part; he acts the part, and makes life easier for everyone involved or interested in the sport.

All this makes Jon Jones good for MMA, kind of. There is no doubt that a popular fighter is good for MMA, a sport that is rising but still rests well outside the mainstream sports click. Jon Jones brings a great deal of positive media attention based on his qualities discussed above. He is squeakily clean by all accounts, exciting, personable, marketable, and young. However, with all this good press and positive attention comes a nasty undercurrent. Jon Jones well documented infancy in the sport logically brings fans to the assumption that MMA is further behind in its development as a sport than it really is. Like Brock Lesnar, Jones make it appear as if all you need to do is be a supreme athlete and you can climb easily to the top of the mountain. Nothing could be further from the truth. Jones and Brock come from a wrestling background, a well documented based for MMA. They combine supreme athleticism with this base, a base that has led better wrestlers to less success. It is their athleticism that allows them to pick up other aspects of the sport quickly. Jones has been quicker to pick up these aspects because of his age (again, discussed above) but make no mistake the two biggest reasons for his success are his wrestling (which permeates into all aspects of the fight) and his size (in which I include is record setting reach). However being a mere undercurrent for the most part, Jones athleticism and its connectivity to the athletic prowess of MMA fighters in general are rarely considered in their complexity. As it stands now I think Jones is good for MMA but the way in which a discourse around Jones develops in the near future will be important in how tempered any positive attention he brings is. The UFC tends to make the mistake of highlighting inexperience as an interesting story and only contextualizing it in press conferences seen by very few casual fans. The more successful Jones becomes the more costly that mistake could be to the sport, regardless of Jones star power.

Conclusion

So what does all this mean? Am I just a bitter Shogun fan trying to reframe Jones victory to make it more palatable for myself? Maybe. It would be foolish to reduce my point to that degree though. This piece is intended to provide context for casual MMA fans and that is what I have attempted to do in this not-so-brief address of multiple facets of this phenomenon. Jon Jones is just that, a phenomenon. Plain and simple, this guy has taken the MMA world by storm and he deserves a ton of credit for his accomplishments. His accomplishments however have produced an abundance of asinine discussion by fans caught in the media current or fans that simply have little or no knowledge of the sport. It may be counterintuitive to American sports fans but a wait and see approach is still best one at this point. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of Jon Jones and a cloud of invincibility does nothing to clear the road ahead. Hyperbole be damned, Jon Jones still has a lot to prove and a tough journey ahead and only he knows if he is truly ready for it.

Monday, March 21, 2011

MMA Ranking Breakdown: March 21st, 2011

Heavyweight

  1. Cain Velasquez (UFC) – We await his return from injury eagerly while the number one contender and former champion coach TUF and fight for a title shot.

  1. Junior Dos Santos (UFC) – Few have been more deserving of a title shot than JDS but he has one more big, BIG test in the way in the form of Brock Lesnar.

  1. Fabricio Werdum (Strikeforce) Werdum dethroned Fedor and now meets Alistair Overeem in the first round of the Strikeforce heavyweight tournament.

  1. Brock Lesnar (UFC) – His lose to Velasquez must have been a bit humbling, but he gets no rebound fight as JDS is as good as they come.

  1. Antonio Silva (Strikeforce) – Calls out Brock as soon as Zuffa buys Strikeforce. Be careful what you wish for Bigfoot.

  1. Shane Carwin (UFC) – It will be interesting to see how 2011 goes for Shane Carwin. How far can his power and wrestling really take him?

  1. Alistair Overeem (Strikeforce/Dream) – The Strikeforce HW champion could make a case for himself to be the top HW in the world if he wins the heavyweight tournament.

  1. Fedor Emelianenko – The fall of Fedor continues. As much as I thoroughly enjoy seeing Fedor fight, I thoroughly hate seeing him lose. Maybe it is time to hang it op

  1. Frank Mir (UFC) – His win over Cro Cop was one of the great disappointing main events in recent memory. Now he has to fend of Roy Nelson to stay in the top 10.

  1. Cole Konrad (Bellator) – He sneaks in with his 7-0 record but quality of competition is an issue for The Polar Bear.

Light- Heavyweight

  1. Jon Jones (UFC) – There is no doubt that he is the number one LHW in the world but now the true test of a champion begins.

  1. Rashad Evans (UFC) – Has KO power and knows the strengths and weaknesses of Jones, but everyone is counting him out.

  1. Shogun Rua (UFC) – Not sure what all the hate is about. Shogun fought with a ton of heart but never quite recovered from getting rocked early.

  1. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (UFC) – Needs to find consistency in the division again.

  1. Lyoto Machida (UFC) – His skid has a really good chance of coming to an end against Randy Couture, Good news as he really needs a win.

  1. Dan Henderson (Strikeforce) – Won the SF title and returns himself to the LHW ranks.

  1. Ryan Bader (UFC) – Didn’t look good against Jones but still possesses tons of potential and recorded significant success for his age.

  1. Forrest Griffen – Big win over Franklin propels him up the list. He is probably even a little better than a few guys above him, but needs wins in 2011.

  1. Muhammed Lawal (Strikeforce) – Very good athlete but very green. King Mo should continue to improve.

  1. Thiago Silva (UFC) – Comes clean about using a pain killer for his back and trying to hide it. This isn't as hard to forgive as juicing would have been.

Middleweight

  1. Anderson Silva (UFC) – What can you say that hasn’t been said. The best fighter in the world now waits for GSP to take care of his business.

  1. Yushin Okami (UFC) – Okami has earned his shot but will likely again be passed over. He still gets the number two nod from me though.

  1. Ronaldo Souza (Strikeforce) – One of the more impressive parts of Strikeforce’s recent card, his record speaks for itself.

  1. Chael Sonnen (UFC) – Between the drug test fiasco and the money laundering, I can’t put him any higher than this.

  1. Hector Lombard (Bellator) – One of Bellator’s greatest attractions, keep an eye on Lombard in 2011.

  1. Vitor Belfort – Vitor came to fight and it’s a real shame there wasn’t more time to see what he had. Back to the drawing board.

  1. Demian Maia (UFC) – Still amazing, still talented, Maia has to put it together and continue winning.

  1. Jorge Santiago (UFC) – Just signed with the UFC and could meet Brian Stann at UFC 130, a great chance to move up.

  1. Nate Marquardt (UFC) – His win over Miller does nothing to move him up or down my list.

  1. Wanderlei Silva (UFC) – Silva’s inactivity is a problem but his win over Bisping has not been forgotten.

Welterweights

  1. Georges St. Pierre (UFC) – It appears that one test remains between GSP and Silva, and few see GSP falling from grace against Shields.

  1. Jon Fitch (UFC) – It appears that Fitch would be a dominant champion if it wasn’t for GSP. A win over Penn could put him in line for a title shot soon.

  1. Jake Shields (UFC) – Say what you will about Shields but he just keeps winning. He has the chance to pull off the upset of the year against GSP.

  1. Thiago Alves (UFC) – Reworking his way up the 170 pound ladder, Alvez is still among the elite in the welterweight division

  1. Carlos Condit (UFC) – Condit had to pull out of his next fight but barring an extended layoff he should maintain his spot until a result goes against him.

  1. Nick Diaz (Strikeforce) – Diaz won but he was exposed by an exceptionally mediocre figher earlier this year. That is enough to fall a spot.

  1. Josh Koscheck (UFC) – Few can match his athleticism. It may be back to the drawing board for Kos but it wont be long till he regains momentum.

  1. Diego Sanchez (UFC) – Diego Sanchez creeps back into the ranks with his recent win but its hard for me to take him seriously till he picks a weight.

  1. Martin Kampmann (UFC) – A tough let down against Sanchez in a fight that could have easily been decided the other way.

  1. Jay Hieron (Strikeforce) – Seven fight win streak and so very little love for Hieron. Time to make a name for himself in 2011.

Lightweight

  1. Gray Maynard (UFC) – The only non-UFC Champ at the top. Maynard has a win and a draw over the champ and is unbeaten as a pro.

  1. Frankie Edgar (UFC) – Will get another shot to beat Maynard and silence the critics that are still not sold he is the best LW in the world.

  1. Gilbert Melendez (Strikeforce) – Probably as good as anyone in the world at 155. We would all be better MMA fans if we got to see him fight the best.

  1. Eddie Alvarez (Bellator) – Another reason big reason to keep an eye on MMA outside the UFC, Alvarez could meet Melendez this year… if we are lucky.

  1. Jim Miller (UFC) – Miller shoots up my list. His UFC 128 win was impressive and proved he should have been up here a long time ago.

  1. Shinya Aoki (Dream) – I tend to think he is a bit overrated, especially after taking a beating from Melendez but his record speaks for itself.

  1. Anthony Pettis (UFC) – The biggest loser in the Maynard/Edgar draw, Pettis now has to fight a very tough Clay Guida before he gets a crack at UFC gold.

  1. Dennis Siver (UFC) – Takes George Sotiropoulos’s spot with a big win over the Aussi

  1. Tatsuya Kawajiri (Dream) – Consistancy issues keep him from gaining too much momentum.

  1. Melvin Guillard (UFC) – His most recent win was the biggest of his career. If he is ready to fight smart the sky is the limit for Guillard.

Featherweight

  1. Jose Aldo (UFC) – Good News: He is 2010 fighter of the year and pound for pound rated. Bad News: Top UFC lightweights are moving down to Featherweight.

  1. Hatsu Hioki (Sengoku) – Quite brilliant over the last few years with only one blemish on his record in that time. Hioki is dangerous almost everywhere.

  1. Mark Hominick (UFC) – Earned himself a title shot recently. We will get to see if his hands look as good against Aldo as they did against Roop.

  1. Chad Mendes (UFC) – Unbeaten and rising quickly, Mendes will likely have to fend off a former UFC lightweight before he can get his crack at the belt.

  1. Diego Nunes (UFC) – His win over Mike Brown (although narrow) is the biggest of his career and puts him right in the hunt for a title shot.

  1. Joe Warren (Bellator) – Big questions about quality of competition loom but Warren has beaten his share of game opponents.

  1. Manny Gamburyan (UFC) – Manny is though as nails but had nothing to offer Aldo in his last outing and has a long way to go back to the top.

  1. Michihiro Omigawa (UFC) A solid record outside the UFC has led to no success inside at 0-3. This stacked division wont afford him many more chances.

  1. Dustin Poirier (UFC) – Poirier surprised everyone with his last win over Josh Grispi. He is young and has a very bright future in MMA.

  1. Marion Sandro (Sengoku) – His 17-2 record would warrant a much higher spot if his two loses hadn’t come in his last five fights.

Bantamweight

  1. Dominick Cruz (UFC) – Simply put, he has been more impressive than anyone at this weight over the last year. He awaits his challengers for his new belt.

  1. Joseph Benavidez (UFC) – Benavidez doesn’t lose to people not named Dominick Cruz. Unfortunately that is the one guy he needs to beat to move up.

  1. Urijah Faber (UFC) – OK OK OK, I’ll make him number three after an impressive win. Looks like he is next for a title shot.

  1. Brian Bowles (UFC) – If he can’t shake the injury bug he may move down further. Bowles has top tier skills at 135 pounds.

  1. Scott Jorgensen (UFC) – Another great fighter that fell short of the champ, Jorgensen will now be tested in terms of his response to his big lose.

  1. Masakatso Ueda (Shooto) – He may only be on a two fight win streak but he is 12-1-2. Ueda seems to be improving with each fight.

  1. Miguel Torres (UFC) – It was dreadful to watch but Torres gets a win on his first “big stage” show. Lets see if he brings the excitement we are use to next time.

  1. Eddie Wineland (UFC) – As impressive as you can be in defeat against a top notch guy. Wineland made his mark at UFC 128.

  1. Demetrious Johnson (UFC) – When the pressure was on Johnson stepped up and put Kid Yamamoto and all his hype away.

  1. Brad Pickett (UFC) – Just one lose in his last 11 fights, Pickett will need to continue his exciting ways if he wants to move up from here.

UFC 128 In Retrospect

UFC 128 represented one of those classic cases of main event oriented card that ended up delivering top to bottom. Jon Jones drew in more fans than I originally anticipated but fighters like Jim Miller, Brendan Schaub, Eddie Wineman, and Urijah Faber took advantage of their chances to impress the masses by performing at high levels. UFC 128 was a game-changer, at least potentially so, and could be great for the sport in the long run. More will be said about Jones, Shogun, and the intricacies of the fight in a later piece but here I will simply focus on what we learned from the card as a whole.

- Jones Is The Real Deal – I am not quite ready to call Jon Jones the greatest of all time as many seem to be, but there is no denying that Jones’ skills warrant a great deal of respect. I will be the first to admit that I underestimated the effect of his size on elite fighters at 205 pounds, a size that I think will eventually present Jones with problems in the future. “Bones” dispatched of Shogun impressively, leaving no doubt as to whether or not he deserved to be champion. Waiting in the wings is a former champion that everyone seems ready to count out before training camps even start in Rashad Evans. While Jon Jones has looked unstoppable to this point I am curious to see how he reacts to Machida, Rampage, Forrest, Randy and other experienced champions being thrown at him. The talent pool at 205 pounds is deep, meaning there is a lot to prove yet for the new prince.

- Jim Miller: The Quiet Contender - Is there any contender for a major title flying more under the radar in any division with any company than Jim Miller? This guy is 20-2 and on a 7 fight winning streak. Ohh and his two loses came to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edger, two guys you might have heard of. Admittedly, I have been a little late to fully getting on this bandwagon but count me in. He adds his name to the list of tough, hardnosed fighters at the top of the light heavyweight division, a place he solidified with Saturday’s win. Keep an eye on Jim Miller from here on out and don’t sleep on his chances to compete with the top talent in the division.

- Urijah Faber Earns His Title Shot – Eddie Wineland made him work for it but Urijah Faber seems primed to take a shot at 135-pound champion Dominick Cruz. Faber struggled early but took control as the fight continued, showing a cool head and a diverse skill set. It wasn’t a bad initial UFC outing for The California Kid, who got to demonstrate more than just dynamic striking. Faber has a long way to go to return to his former glory, but word on the street is that he may coach the next Ultimate Fighter across from Cruz, a move that would do a great deal to build the division as well as both fighters’ star power.

- We Learn NOTHING About ANYONE Else – The main card presented two other fights: one good, one forgettable, neither that taught us anything about any fighter involved. Cro Cop isn’t as good as he use to be (or at least use to look) and doesn’t have a great chin. Schaub has big power but needs tons of development. Nate Marquardt is simply a better fighter than Dan Miller but both guys are game competitors and middle of the road middleweights. If there is anything to take away from these fights it is that Cro Cop should bow out of MMA and Nate Marquardt is settling into his gatekeeper role. Again, these are facts I think most MMA fans recognized before UFC 128 but got confirmed in their respective fights.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Why You Should Watch UFC 128

UFC 128 was flying under the radar until Rashad Evans’ injury forced him out and Jon “Bones” Jones into the main event. With Shogun Rua embarking on one of the most anticipated and question raising title reigns for long-time MMA fans the introduction of the rising star presented a profoundly unique match-up. Many have waited for Shogun to ascend to the top of the light-heavyweight division since his world – beating performances in Pride FC. Unfortunately his three most impressive performances in the UFC, one against Chuck Liddell and two against Machida, have only marginally endeared him to the casual fan. Jones on the other hand has become wildly popular and his dominance might even remind some of a young Rua in Japan. Meanwhile Dana White and company continues their trend of light-stacking cards headlined by a light-heavyweight title fight. Jones vs Shogun presents one of the most perplexing match-ups in recent memory but the under card is underwhelming at best, filled with little known fighters, one-sided match-ups, and a legend that appears to have lost it, whatever it was when he had it. In an attempt to try new formats, I am going to count down the top five things to get excited about from this card, which not surprisingly generally align with the five fights on the main card.

5. Faber Hits The UFC

Urijah Faber (pictured) has been a long time fan favorite in the WEC, pushing fast pace fights and providing the company a marketable face for the last few years. His fall from the top surprised some people as he was unable to deal with Matt Brown who in turn seemed unable to deal with anyone else. Faberwill make his UFC debut against Eddie Wineland, who is riding a four-fight win streak into UFC 128. The most interesting aspect of this fight might be the style match-up. Wineland’s record isn’t going to impress many but he is a wrestler with KO power, something Faber has had trouble with in the past. Faber is no doubt going to be a focal point of the UFC’s 135-pound division. What remains to be seen is if he can live up to the hype.

4. Miller vs Shalorus

Jim Miller (pictured) is a fighter. I know all of these guys are fighters but Jim Miller seems to like fighting a bit more than just about everyone else. In fact, both Miller boys (the other to be discussed later) always seem to bring a hard-nosed approach to fighting. Kamal Shalorus will not hesitate to get in there and mix it up with Miller. Both are looking to make headway in the lightweight division and Jim Miller might even be on his way to a title fight if he can avoid trip-ups. These fighters might not be glamorous or well known but keep an eye on this one as it is a fight of the night candidate for sure.

3. Marquardt vs Miller

Nate Marquardt was originally scheduled to face Akyama before the latter got pulled from the fight with an injury. What was the match’s lose might be the fans gain as last minute replacement Dan Miller rarely fails to bring the fight. The brother of the aforementioned Jim Miller, Dan is more likely to push the pace and get in Marquardt’s face than Akyama. He might even take a Chael Sonnan approach to the fight and attempt to grind out a win from top position. Marquardt on the other hand is backed into a corner. He can’t afford to lose another fight, especially if he wants to remain relevant in the title conversation. Outside of the title fight, this is the most interesting and likely most important fight on the card in terms of positioning in a division. Both fighters stand to gain and or lose a lot of ground depending on the outcome of the fight.

2. Cro Cops Swan Song?

Cro Cop (pictured) is far from a relevant force in the UFC right now. His lackluster performances and inability to win with any consistency have placed him in a b-list of fighters in the heavyweight division. His fight against Brendan Shaub might be his last in the UFC if he finds himself with another tally in the L column. While Shaub’s recent performances and his rise in the UFC are noteworthy, the story hear remains Cro Cop, if for no other reason than what he gave many MMA fans in his prime: unbelievable fights and highlight reel KOs. If Cro Cop can find that form that everyone seems to still be waiting for I’ll be the first one out of my seat cheering. But if this is to be his last fight, at least under the UFC banner, I want to see it, no matter how painful it may be. Cro Cop’s legacy has no doubt been tainted but it has not been cast aside and he still deserves our attention

1. Shogun vs Jones

I would venture to say that the most important belt in the sport today is the UFC Ligh-Heavyweight Champion. The highly competitive nature of the division has necessitated an excessive amount of parody with regards to the title. Since Chuck Liddell, no one seems to be able hold on to the belt for more than one defense. Shogun Rua (background) is going to try to establish some stability in the division by starting his title reign off on the right foot. His opponent has been crowed the future of the sport. Jon Jones' (foreground) career to this point has seen him virtually untested, running through highly competitive fighters. Jones replaces the injured Rashad Evans and will find himself across from by far his toughest challenge to date. When Shogun is healthy he is light-years ahead of Jones former opponents with his striking and his game from the bottom, two places that Jones’ former opponents find themselves in a great deal of trouble. Expect Jones to rely heavily on his reach to set up take-downs. His freakish physical stature is going to give anyone problems so I expect he will get the fight to the floor and control the pace for some time. Unfortunately once on the ground Jones may have a different set of problems. Shogun is famous for technical Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and great leg locks. Seeing Jones utilize his top game against Bader was a cause for concern as some of the positions he maintained may leave him open to submissions from a fighter more skilled off his back. It is no secret by this point that I think Shogun is going to outmatch Jones, who I strongly believe will be a champion one-day. Two factors give me pause: Shogun’s knee and the lack of prep time for each fighter. Shogun is returning from yet another knee surgery. And his returns from such surgeries have yielded mixed results. Hopefully, Shogun has used his long layoff to ensure that he is 100% for this fight. If Shogun is not firing on all cylinder a new champion will be crowned. Additionally the nature of injury replacements inherently leaves each fighter with less time to prepare. While the argument could be made that Jones is more like Rashad (the fighter Shogun was originally planning for) than Shogun is Bader (The fighter Jones was preparing for and beat before hearing the news he must keep training), I think the shortened prep time introduces an element of unpredictability as much as anything. At the same time, Jones and Evans are not very similar in terms of their striking game. It is Shogun’s anticipation while standing that sets him apart and he will be more or less starting from scratch preparing for Jones in that regard.

If you are a fan of action, this is the main event for you. Shogun Rua vs Jon Jones is not going the distance. I would be more comfortable betting on that than I would be either fighter. Weather it is Shogun’s experience or Jones physical attributes that win the day, neither man is going to sit back and let the fight come to them. There is nothing certain in MMA, especially at 205 pounds in the UFC, but the winner of this fight could be well on his way to turning the corner of a new era in the division.

UFC Goes Shopping

The biggest event to hit MMA in quite some time came out of left field as news of UFC’s purchase of Strikeforce broke yesterday afternoon. Yes the UFC has gone out and bought its biggest competitor but don’t think that means the end of Strikeforce. In short, the UFC doesn’t plan to absorb Strikeforce and its fighters into its own promotion but rather it plans to allow both companies to run as they do today with the UFC likely overseeing operations of Strikeforce. The ramifications of this are endless so I have broken down this piece into two sections: what this means for the sport from a standpoint of its growth and the business ramifications and what we can potentially expect as far as events go as a result of the deal.

The Sport

This is an impressive show of force for the UFC. It appears that they decided Strikeforce has become successful enough that they would be worth owning and went out and bought them. It was like the second they decided that they wanted Strikeforce they took it, at least that is how it appears. The sport of MMA, at least in America, is quite simply the domain of the UFC, Zuffa, and Dana White. While everyone with half a brain understood that already, I am not sure anyone saw their nonchalant purchase of their top rival coming. Depending on how the UFC decides to operate the two companies in the long term, we are very likely to see MMA continue on the path of privatized monopolized professional sports. UFC is to MMA what NBA is to basketball, MLB is to baseball, and NFL is to football. Unless there is some sort of dramatic shift in the near future, there will likely be one promotion where the top fighters can be found and all other promotions will be glorified minor leagues. The pros and cons have been discussed plenty but I tend to favor the model. Not simply because it seems inevitable but because it allows for better fights for the fans. When everyone negotiates their fights through the same promoters huge obstacles are removed. The UFC doesn’t allow fighters to pick and choose fights. It promotes a culture of competitiveness that actively seeks out the best fights and the best fighters so as to prove supremacy beyond doubt. Between the culture that the UFC fosters and the ease at which they can negotiate fights with a one-promotion system, Zuffa can put together almost any fight it wants and more importantly any fight the fans wants.

What To Expect

I am going to approach this as a list because I think there is a lot to consider here. The UFC’s purchase of Strikeforce is a game changer, whether they will admit it right away or not.

- We will likely start seeing cross-promotional fights sooner rather than later. Perhaps they won’t be titled as such. Fighters may move from one promotion to the other under the guise of new contracts but whether it is through cross-promotion or roster adjustments I expect we are going to get some of those “dream” fights we have been waiting for. For example, I think there is a good chance the winner of the Strikeforce Heavyweight tournament could find himself facing the winner of Cain Velasquez vs JDS/Brock. It is tough to say how this will actually manifest itself but rest assured the UFC did not buy Strikeforce with no interest in crossing the talent pools.

- Expect this business as usual stuff to end. I suspect that the UFC is simply planning to ride out Strikeforce’s TV contracts and then will either turn the promotion to a minor league of sorts or dissolve it completely. In the mean time they may give this a fair trial run to see if it is financially viable to run two “equal” promotions the way they run now. The long and short of it is that if the desire is to put on the best fights possible, the current format will inevitably give way to a one promotion system.

- Strikeforce’s production value is going to go way up. One can presume that we are going to see better camera work, improved commentary, and greatly enhanced promotional work for each event, including countdown/preview shows. Strikeforce should see some immediate aesthetic changes for the better as a result of this deal.

- If you aren’t familiar with these names yet expect to be: Gilbert Melendez, Antonio Silva, King Mo (Lawler) Lawal, Nick Diaz, and Alstair Overeem. These are just a few of the fighters who should see their overall stock go up with this new deal.

- Expect to hear about Strikeforce a lot on UFC television. They will likely promote it to increase ratings and build their stars, whatever their plans might be for those stars. Mutual promotion between the two companies will be good for everyone, especially Strikeforce and its fighters.

- Non-UFC fighters will finally get more recognition in mainstream MMA media. I am not a conspiracy theorist that thinks the UFC blackballs all media outlets that don’t favor its fighters but I do think the UFC looks more favorably upon outlets that do in terms of event access, interviews, and such. I also think its natural that the biggest kid on the block gets talked about the most while everyone else has to do something a bit special to get noticed. Strikeforce fighters should receive an increase in attention, particularly regarding rankings and from mainstream sports outlets such as ESPN and Yahoo Sports.

Whether or not this is a good move depends largely on your perspective. If you are of the belief that the UFC’s domination of MMA is a good thing, you are probably pretty happy. If you find their monopoly to be counterproductive then you likely see this is as yet another sign of the MMA apocalypse. The one thing we know for sure is that this is going to change the sport in some really profound ways.

Monday, March 7, 2011

UFC 127 In Retrospect

A quick trip to Utah has necessitated a slight delay a response to one of the UFC’s most underwhealming cards of the year. UFC 127 passed with little fan far and left us with almost as little to get excited about. The main event ended in a draw, unknown fighters pulled off decision upsets, and Michael Bisping won yet another fight that leaves people saying “so what.” That isn’t to say that the card was without its impact, the impact just came from all the wrong places.

  1. Michael Bisping’s Actions Ring Louder Than Words

There are very few fighters that I dislike but it sets my mind at ease when I am not alone in a negative evaluation. Even “objective” journalists tend to let their feelings on Bisping bleed through in their writing. The stains are unmistakable in reports regarding his most recent actions. The criticisms, however subtle, seem more warranted than normal this time around. Bisping’s actions must be set against the background of the fight. Jorge Rivera made spoof videos of the Brit in a self-admitted attempt to get into Bisping’s head before the fight. Bisping then turned around and won a fight over an opponent that he is likely more skilled than, giving him the “bragging rights” after their heated preflight exchange. With that established, Michael Bisping did three things that warrant the ire of MMA fans: he spat at his opponent’s corner, he kneed a down opponent that was no where near returning to his feet, and he questioned a clearly concussed opponent’s cardio and will to fight after giving the opponent the concussion (or at least serious head injury) with an illegal blow. Most of that seems pretty self-explanatory, but allow me to elaborate. During the fight Bisping was winning exchanges with crisp strikes but then decided to throw an illegal knee to Rivera’s head while Rivera was down and making no upward movement.. Frequently this happens to fighters who are on their way down or up and the incident is remember as an unfortunate accident. However, I have yet to discern the “reason” Bisping even registered the strike in the realm of possibilities. Rivera was clearly on his knees blocking everything but a knee to the forehead, hence the ease with which it landed flush. If it wasn’t enough that the illegal strike landed cleanly and clearly changed the fight, Bisping then went on to question his opponents cardio and mocked him for not being prepared. Ohh and to add insult to injury “The Count” decided that it was ok for an adult professional fighter to flip off his opponents corner and then to spit at them. To save myself the time of an endless rant I will end with this. Michael Bisping should not be rewarded for this win, but he will be. He should be suspended or fined, but I doubt he will be. Would Bisping have won the fight without the knee? Likely. However a strike like that is an egregious violation of well-documented rules and his actions after were a clear affront to professional sports ethics.

  1. Penn and Fitch Decide Nothing But Prove Judging Flaws

If the most important thing to take away from UFC 127 inspired a lengthy response, the second will inspire brevity. Jo Silva’s deserves some credit here because the main even he set up turned out to be highly competitive. The first two rounds were very entertaining but the third put a damper on the evening’s festivities. Jon Fitch dominated BJ Penn in the final stanza to the point of inciting a 10-8 score from two judges, enough to necessitated a tie that left everyone with a bit of a sour taste in their mouth. My issue with this comes in two waves. First, I think a 10-8 round should be harder to earn than this fight would lead us to believe. If Fitch were doing a great deal of damage or making multiple attempts to finish, perhaps his position would warrant such a score, but he was maintaining control with little to no chance of losing position or winning the fight. Second, even if this were a 10-8 round, the fight should not have been allowed to be rendered a draw and would not have if MMA Judging were to include analysis of “fight as a whole.” BJ Penn essentially eeked out two razor thin rounds, one of which I actually scored the other way and then was dominated in the third. If judges were able to evaluate the fight as a whole after seeing all three rounds, a tie seems unjust if not absurd. Every few months a high profile fight gives us reason to reevaluate MMA judging and UFC 127 should bring these two issues sharply into the conversation.

  1. Siver Upsets Sotiropoulos

At the risk of isolating people who do not take the sport remotely as seriously as I do, this fight necessitates a slightly more sophisticated analysis. To fully understand why Siver walked away with an upset win and Sotiropoulos found himself with the short end of the stick, one must understand an nuanced aspect of the fight. When taking down an opponent Soti likes to grab a knee and then pull and spin towards his opponents planted leg. This effectively spins his opponent to the ground, utilizing balance, momentum, and shoulder/back strength. To this point his tactic has served him well but Siver’s legs were unmoved, literally, by his attempts and one look at Siver will tell you why. His legs are like tree trunks, trained by years of high-level kickboxing. So as Soti tried to put the fight where he held the advantage only an overpowering opponent met him as he could not pull Siver’s knee up with the appropriate torque to complete his takedown. That left Soti fighting Siver’s game and that is not a game you are going to win frequently. Two early knockdowns were enough to win the lay-fan’s nod for the fight and a steady onslaught of strikes throughout all three rounds were enough to win the judges. This match represents Siver’s biggest win of his career and Soti’s only lose, a lose that will set him back quite a bit in his hunt for a title shot. Siver might find himself a win or two (at the most) away from a title shot of his own. Pre-fight, this was one of the most important fights on the card. In retrospect, this fight will have more impact on its division than any other fight at UFC 127.

  1. Ebersole Seizes Big Chance

As I mentioned before the fight, no one gets 50+ fights without being a game fighter. Ebersole took full advantage of his opportunity, winning the biggest fight of his life on the big stage. Seeing as how I don’t see Ebersole as a potential contender nor do I see him as a fixture in the UFC as a long term staple, the biggest ramifications for this fight come for the loser and the man that didn’t even fight. Chris Lytle is back to the drawing board and again securely fixed in his gatekeeper position. Lytle will need to accrue another impressive winning streak to get another opportunity like the one he let slip away here. Carlos Condit on the other had must have been kicking himself and cursing the injury gods knowing that he could have finished the Lytle that showed up at UFC 127. He gains nothing from the upset but loses a potential return opponent in Lytle. Condit should hope for a top contender to close the gap between himself and a title shot and not Ebersole, who should provide an exceptionally winnable fight, but one that is impotent in its ability to provide upward mobility.

  1. Mark Hunt Hits Walk Off KO

It is a shame that American MMA fans are not better acquainted with Mark Hunt. I think they would like him if they could just get to know him or if they could of at least gotten to know him in his prime. In short, Mark hunt has a cinder block head that can absorb a ridiculous amount of punishment and hits as hard as probably any man in the world, a true heavyweight slugger if there ever was one. MMA fans that were able to catch his fight against Tuchscherer got a small taste of what Mark Hunt is all about. After peppering Tuchscherer and delivering to him a cut that drew the special attention of the referee and the doctor alike, Hunt landed multiple shots that culminated with a huge uppercut, literally knocking Tuchscherer goofy and unable to standup or see strait. Every MMA coach tells fighters to continue until the referee stops the fight but Hunt didn’t need anyone to tell him what his hands already knew, that he just earned a serious knockout victory. The win is important for Hunt, who likely wants to stay in the UFC as long as he can. MMA fans need to watch for his next booking. If Dan White smiles on Hunt and the fans a like he will be booked against a slugger, a treat for anyone who enjoys heavy-handed knockouts.