UFC 114 Preview

One of the most anticipated headlining bouts finally comes to fruition this weekend as Rampage Jackson steps off the movie set and back into the cage against his long-time rival Rashad Evans. The card itself lacks competitive matches on paper but features fighters who are being given huge opportunities to make statements from the favorite and the underdog roles.

Preliminary Card

Luis Cane will try to bounce back from his disappointing outing versus Little Nog. Losing to a Nogueira is never something to be ashamed of but a lot of fans, myself included, were talking Cane up, thinking even a highly competitive fight could be his true coming out. The UFC was not eager to put him back in the fire but Cyrille Diabate should be a game underdog, even if his kickboxing style could lend itself well to Cane’s precision and punching control.

Efrain Escudero will try to get his career on a roll again against Dan Lauzon, who is allegedly having some trouble staying motivated for fights. I don’t usually put too must stock in rumors but when your own brother walks out on you and says you aren’t committed, its time for Dan Lauzon fans to feel a little nervous. Lauzon can prove his detractors wrong with a win but he should have an up hill battle against Escudero. Escudero has loads of potential and needs to win when he is supposed to if he wants to break back into the spotlight.

Speaking of up hill battles, Waylon Lowe gets to test the uber athletic Melvin Guillard. Word on the street is that Lowe is a wrestler who likes to stand up and GnP. Both of those things are easier said than done against the explosive and powerful Guillard. The fight comes on short notice for Lowe as well. Don’t call the fight just yet. Guillard has always been prone to mistakes and likes to go for broke. He seems to have started utilizing strategy and he likely wont worry about Lowe’s submissions (his kryptonite since joining the UFC), but Lowe has a chance to make a name for himself and that can be all a fighter really needs.

One fighter who has been given a number of opportunities but has struggled a bit against guys not named C.B. has been Amir Sadollah. I don’t mean that he has struggled in his performance, more that he struggles to catch a break. The UFC seems to have got him back on track and has taken off the kid gloves again. Dong Hyun Kim is unbeaten and physically an impressive force. Even his initial “loss” to Karo Parisyan that was overturned was close enough that many, myself included, thought it should been judged the other way. Amir is a quirky fan favorite but being in Korea my internet might get shut off if I don’t pick Dong Hyun Kim outright so I stand firmly behind himand look forward to seeing him climb the ladder of success.

Main Card

Diego Sanchez makes his move back to 170 after being convincingly put down by BJ Penn. Like all fighters, the weight they are fighting at is always “their best weight” but time will tell if Sanchez can break through at WW in a way he was not able to before. While he is the favorite in this fight, the UFC gave him no cakewalk in John Hathaway, an unbeaten blue-chip fighter who has been given the chance of a lifetime at UFC 114. Sanchez has to prove that he does in fact belong back at 170 and Hathaway gets an opportunity for the biggest win of his career.

If you put a gun to my head today and told me to bet on one upset at UFC 114, I would stay as far away from Jason Brilz’s name as I possibly could. Little Nogueira might be the most underrated fighter in the world, tearing through the otherwise impressive Luiz Cane and coming off six-fight win streak. That is not to mention sporting one of the most impressive career resumes in the division. Many felt he was a heavy favorite against his original opponent, former UFC champion Forrest Griffin. His opponent, Jason Brilz ,… well he seems like a really nice guy. In seriousness though, he has been known to pull of upsets in the past, but this is a different beast all together. No one could state their presence in their respective division more emphatically than Brilz but no one faces a bigger obstacle, let alone on short notice.

The long awaited return of Todd Duffee is finally upon us. The man with the fastest win in UFC history will try to live up to the hype. Reportedly, Duffee believes he is being over-hyped and is not taking Mike Russow lightly. The rest of the world however does not seem to be following suit. Russow is a game underdog though; with an 8 fight win streak, 6 of those coming by submission. This is the key Russow’s chance at winning. It is easy to count out Russow’s inferior athleticism, striking and power, but if the fight ends up on the ground no one really knows what Duffee brings to the table. Stack that on top of the immense pressure that Duffee will be under to follow up his record setting win with another impressive performance and Russow has been handed a golden opportunity. Weather or not he can seize it is another thing altogether and I am not running out to place an underdog bet on this one.

Dan Miller seems to be given the greatest gift of all. First he was matched up with Michael Bisping, despite coming off two loses and then the fight was moved to the co-main event when Forrest Griffin had to pull out of the card. Now Miller has a chance to shut one of the biggest and most attention grabbing mouths in all of MMA. This fight should boil right down to who can impose their will, the wrestler or the striker. Bisping is officially in the grey zone, contender or mid-level gate keeper… the jury is out. Miller is not popular enough to afford a 3-fight slide. The fight is high profile considering the fighters and where they are in their careers so the win become that much more valuable. I suspect both guys are going to bring their best as they can and would be a little surprised if this one went the distance. Watch for this to be a candidate for an award of some sort tonight.

The main event strikes me as a bit different from the rest of the card. I don’t think there is a clear-cut favorite in this fight. Odds makers and fans alike seem to favor Rampage but not by much. Both fighters have a lot to prove but neither will make a shocking splash if they win. This is a grudge match. Better yet, this is a grudge match with title implications. These are the things that set this bout apart. Rashad has always eyed a return to the top and even though Rampage has shown signs of losing interest in his UFC contract, one can only assume he would jump at the opportunity for revenge on Shogun if he were to win this fight. This fight is real simple. If Rampage comes in as motivated as he says he is and he avoids a big mistake, he should have all the tools in hand to win and likely finish this fight. His boxing is more technical, his chin is made of iron, and his wrestling is highly underrated (ask Dan Henderson). Thiago Silva was able to jump up every time Rashad took him down so I don’t see Rampage having too much trouble with Rashad’s wrestling. Evans has one thing going for him though; he explosively finds ways to win. Rashad brings a varied skill set. He has knockout power in his hands and his feet and solid wrestling to keep his opponent honest. Rampage can’t sleep on him for a minute. If Rashad would happen to come in with a tight game plan, he could be athletic enough to give Rampage fits all night. One way or another the drama comes to an end this weekend (we hope). Both fighters have done all the talking they can and to the victor go the spoils, a title shot and infinite bragging rights.

UFC 113 and Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery

It seems like only yesterday the MMA world was buzzing over the big rematch, the match that would settle the poorly filled out score cards, Shogun vs Machida. With two cards past, MMA has seen some fairly significant shifts.

UFC

Lets start by trimming the fat. The Kimbo saga finally seems to have come to an end. I honestly thought they would try go get him one more win and feed him to Cro Cop but there is no way UFC brass missed on how one sided this one was always going to be. At best they thought it was a big wager and they didn’t care to lose. The worst part about the whole thing is the mainstream coverage that Kimbo’s fight, destruction, and subsequent firing stirred up while virtually no mention of the main event could be found outside the ol’ MMA standbys. Fortunately enough Kimbo brought some eyes to skilled MMA athletes and now he can go make his career elsewhere, someplace he fits a bit better.

Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley both lived up to their villain personas. Daley let his see him right out the UFC door following a sucker punch after the fight had ended. The sad thing for Daley is that in his head that had to have gone differently, a KO or something more satisfying. Kos on the other hand is getting himself a reputation, drama-king. I am not saying he faked it and I am not saying he didn’t but there is no doubt that MMA fans are beginning to wonder if Mr. Koscheck is taking acting classes in his spare time. Either way you cut it he has lined himself up for a title shot and rematch with GSP.

Shogun has finally done it; he has climbed his way to the top of the MMA rankings at 205 pounds. He had been the unofficial best fighter at his weight before fighting very serious injuries and now it is official. In the process he ended the Machida era as quickly as it began. Shogun’s victory was convincing but these two men are fair matches for one another and it would surprise no one if we saw them fight again. Machida is back to the drawing board. Perhaps it is time for him to try training full time at a big camp. Shogun on the other hand awaits a laundry list of challengers. Everyone from Little Nog to Forrest, Rampage to Rashad, and Couture to Anderson are potential challengers now that Shogun is champion. The win doesn’t flip the division on its head but it certainly opens things up a bit more in terms of potential match-ups in MMA’s most dynamic division.

Strikeforce

Andrei Arlovski hasn’t won since 2008. Considering how dominant he was thought to be as UFC heavyweight champion that is somewhat surprising. There is no doubt that he has been booked against quality competition but one would expect him to pull one win out of his last three. Arlovski will continue to be a relatively marketable heavyweight outside of Zuffa contract, but he is running out of marketable opponents. His fight against Nelson was closer than it should have been (being stood up in the middle of a submission attempt), Fedor nearly killed him for one mistake, Rogers had his punches scouted from a mile away and Silva out boxed the man who I suppose to have the most crisp and technical stand-up in the division. It appears that Arlovski is a crossroads, its time to start winning against quality competition again or he will become a stepping stone for HW’s climbing to the top and making names for themselves.

Bret Rogers looked more than a little exposed by a man who matches his size and possibly his power. That man, Alistair Overeem, silenced a lot of critics. Presuming he can stay away from steroid controversy (which seem to be the case for the time being) it seems like Overeem is well on his way to being a top HW, one to recon with. Fedor will feel the pressure to answer the challenge. The UFC could start feeling the pressure to make a move for him if he were to come available. If Overheem’s stock made the biggest jump, Rogers’ stock took a big hit. He was much more impressive in his fight against Fedor and Arlovski, contests that will likely keep him quite relevant in Strikeforce. However, this was the Rogers that many of the skeptics were waiting for, outmatched by superior striking and completely overwhelmed by talent. The only logical step is for Overheem to meet the challenge of Fedor, but don’t be surprised if he is forced to dispose of Silva first. There are only so many big ticket names in Strikeforce and you might as well call it a round robin tournament at this point because money means more than sensible booking for an organization in Strikeforce’s shoes.

In just 7 day a lot can happen in MMA and a lot did: champions crowned, dynasties fallen, critiques silenced, stars fading, and sucker-shots taken. Such is the climate of today’s MMA, the fastest moving, fastest growing sport in the world today where a new king seems to be crowned every month.

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun II

The UFC is about to put up one of the most well booked shows topped with an unparalleled main event for the year 2010 to this point and the foreseeable future. That is of course making an assessment of booking, hype, narrative, and quality of the match-up on paper before the fight. There is no telling how it will look after the fact. In short, no booking this year has been as impressive as this one, a rematch between the clear-cut top two fighters in the most exciting, stacked, and popular division in MMA following a controversial decision in inaugural fight. This is the MMA loyalists dream fight, highlighting fighters who are epitomes of class and professionalism, not to mention world-class technical ability. It comes none-too-late to boot as the last two major MMA cards have left a bit of a sour flavor in a lot of mouths between brawls in the cage, to clowning champions. While anything can happen in this sport, this card is safe while remaining of the utmost interest, highlighting fighters that typically rarely steal headlines but always leave it in the cage. Well that is with the one glaring exception.

The under card proper will feature at least three fights that should catch most well versed fan’s attention. Marcus Davis is going to try to get his career back on track against perennial low-level gatekeeper Jonathan Goulet. Goulet is not a man to take lightly as he has been in the cage with some top fighters. That said, there is a reason the fight was booked and it was to give the Irish Hand Grenade the opportunity to turn his fortune around. Marcus Davis I one of the few fighters I have ever met, albeit briefly, and since that meeting I must count myself among Davis fans. I wish him nothing but the best in this fight and am optimistic that this one will go the way of the Hand Grenade. TJ Grant and Johny Hendricks will meet in a dark horse for fight of the night. Hendricks is clearly no one’s favorite at Zuffa. After beating Amir he has been given under card fights with zero hype, while Amir was handed a loud-mouth, moderately profiled fight on a silver platter and will next get his shot to make waves on Spike TV. Regardless I am a fan of both of these fighters and think this could be a real entertaining scrap. Finally, Tom Lawlor will get another chance to entertain the fans as he takes on journeyman Joe Doerksen. Both men could be fighting for their contracts, given UFC’s recent roster cuts so this one deserves an eye, if for nothing else but Lawlor’s weigh-in antics.

As the UFC turns the big lights on, two overachieving middleweights will square off in what looks to be a turning point for both men. Belcher has been an up-and-down fighter for years but has the chance to rack up his third quality win in four fights, with a competitive loss to boot. Cote finally returns from his freakish loss to Anderson Silva and this is a great fight to find out just where he belongs in the division. Both fighters will be jockeying for position in a highly competitive division. Speaking of where a fighter belongs, Kimbo Slice will get another chance to silence a few more critics by proving he belongs in the UFC, let alone on the main card. Slice will fight the only fighter that was able to steal any of his spotlight on TUF 10, Matt Mitrione. The fight likely doesn’t quite deserve its placement of the time on the count-down show but we all know the drill by now. Kimbo is in sink or swim mode as a single poor performance will reify all his doubters criticisms. None the less a lot of eyes will eyes will be on Mitrione and Slice, rendering this a big opportunity for both men to make their mark. The televised fight that is flying under the radar but should be another contender for Fight of the Night honors is Sam Stout v Jeremy Stephens, a fight that would have received some countdown time in a completely just world. Both fighters are always known to bring it all and leave it in the cage. I don’t expect this fight to see a ton of ground time; both fighters should be looking to take off the other’s head. Stephens and Stout are coming off wins and both could use a visible win like this, the winner can likely suspect a legitimate slide up the ranks.

No fight on the card provides the winner a better opportunity to move upward than the co-main event between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley. The winner has been more or less guaranteed a title shot, while the loser gets to eat a lot of crow and start over. Joe Silva either brilliantly put these two swaggering alpha males on a collision course with one another at just the right time, or he stumbled into one damn near perfect storm. Machida and Shogun have all kinds of hype around their title fight but despite the controversial history, neither man I one to let out a ton of trash talk. Kos and Daley are going to bring all the jaw the card needs and one of them is going to come out a very appealing contender for GSP’s belt. The fight itself is a tough one to call. The result could go either way, as both guys seem to get better just about every time we see them. I tend to like a fighter with a more well rounded game but Kos had problems last time he fought an athletic striker. One way or the other this fight ads a little sensationalism to a card that needs to put MMA and the UFC back on the right track.

There might not be a potential main event in MMA today that is more well equipped to put the sport where it needs to be right now than Machida vs Shogun II. There are no gimmicks here, no fake hype. These two guys have a history with one other that is fundamentally built on competition in its highest form. There is not another division in the sport that has two guys so evenly matched at the top. Regardless of how the first fight went down, controversy or not, the outcome of this one is still anyone’s guess. I suspect both fighters will bring something new to the table. Shogun will likely look to mix a takedown or two into each round, depending on how things are going for him in the stand up and Machida might be a bit more aggressive, changing up his rhythm so as to prevent Shogun from timing his strikes like he did in the first fight. Even if Machida doesn’t need it he will have to come prepared to do something about the leg-kicks that Rua brought to the first fight and that could be to Shogun’s advantage if he can keep Machida worried about them. This one shouldn’t go the distance. For two men of this caliber to spend 50 minutes in the cage with one another in less than a year and someone not be able to put the fight away would be amazing. Plus, neither guy wants this one to go to the judges after the last fight and the fallout thereof. I said from the announcement of the result that a rematch would benefit Machida, whom likely can figure out how to beat any man in the world with enough time. However Shogun has looked like the killer from Pride we all wanted to see in the UFC and that might be a bit more beast than man. This is not a fight to miss, so crack a cold beer (or soda), get your best bad-for-you-sports-food ready, invite your friends and enjoy MMA competition at its absolute finest